You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
THE EDGE
C-grade Under 8.5 (full-game total) — model vs market gap 6 points. The fired signals' value is timing — the close absorbs them. Umpire Bruce Dreckman (confirmed).
CONTEXT CHIPS — TOTAL
STARTERS K% / BB%PRICEDErick Fedde 17.0/7.8 · Framber Valdez 17.0/8.4
MARKET ANCHORPRICEDtonight's line 8.5 vs 8 typical at Rate Field this season
LINEUP K% (LAST 30)PRICEDhome 25.3 · away 23.5
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY (NOT QUALITY)PRICEDhome 311p/3d (b2b 0) · away 218p/3d (b2b 0) · recent arms: Brant Hurter, Bryan Hudson, Davis Martin, Drew Sommers
CONTEXT CHIPS — FIRST 5
STARTERS K% / BB%PRICEDErick Fedde 17.0/7.8 · Framber Valdez 17.0/8.4
MARKET ANCHORPRICEDtonight's line 4.5 vs 4.5 typical at Rate Field this season
LINEUP K% (LAST 30)PRICEDhome 25.3 · away 23.5
F5 excludes the bullpen — that's why this market isolates the starters.
CAUTIONS — WHAT CUTS AGAINST THIS
The total line has moved -4 since the grade toward the graded side (anchor 8.5).
Everything on this card is in the price. The grade is the model's read of how the priced pieces combine.
Detroit Tigers1Chicago White Sox3FINAL
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|
| DET | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
| CWS | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 3 |
|---|
HOW THE GRADED MARKETS LANDED
no lean First-5-innings Over 4.5 · landed 4 · LOST
C Under 8.5 runs · landed 4 · WON