Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays

Wed 9/16 · 2:07 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

FIRST 5 INNINGS · OVER 4.5

B cards like this have won 49% over · market 50%

TOTAL

no lean

model 47% over · market 48%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 10-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

The away starter strikes out 16.4% of batters, adjusted — a lower strikeout rate than average66%

Park & environment leans over18%

Backup catcher startingagainst the over8%

The away team below league average in home runs, last 30 gamesagainst the over5%

Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year — fewer called strikes2%

Market: First-5-innings Over 4.5 at -108 (pinnacle, quoted 1:00 PM CDT) · model expects ~5.5 runs · divergence 10 points — band B. B-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. B cards in this market have won 49.2% of 620 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), -2.0 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.

Frozen no lean at 8:15 AM CDT · the market moved away from it · final grade B. · new at this pass — the morning pass had no lean.

anchor First-5 Over 4.5 -108 → closed -111 · our way

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Heavily used bullpenCatcher rest spotVeteran rest spotDay game after a night gameGetaway day (day game, then travel)High-scoring umpire

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-16T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5507278572062257,
  "p_shipped": 0.5137519973732213,
  "model_mu": 4.247416697759079,
  "market_p": 0.5116279069767442,
  "divergence": 0.03909995022948154,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "none",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter strikes out 16.4% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
    "share": 0.6818,
    "contribution": 0.39437,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
    "share": 0.1498,
    "contribution": -0.08666,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "h_cs30",
     "a_cat_framing_prior"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Day game",
    "share": 0.1248,
    "contribution": -0.07218,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "is_retract",
     "wx_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.024,
    "contribution": 0.01389,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.0196,
    "contribution": -0.01131,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_hr30",
     "h_off_k30",
     "h_off_hr30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-16T18:00:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5984665672336849,
  "p_shipped": 0.5111461592626395,
  "model_mu": 5.459287669633397,
  "market_p": 0.5012919896640827,
  "divergence": 0.09717457756960213,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T18:00:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter strikes out 16.4% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
    "share": 0.6619,
    "contribution": 0.39437,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
    "share": 0.1786,
    "contribution": 0.10644,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "roof_open",
     "is_retract"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
    "share": 0.0847,
    "contribution": -0.05049,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_backup_catcher",
     "h_cs30",
     "a_cat_framing_prior"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.0514,
    "contribution": -0.03064,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_hr30",
     "h_off_k30",
     "h_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.0233,
    "contribution": 0.01389,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-16T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4992184905366887,
  "p_shipped": 0.4761194978525078,
  "model_mu": 7.990934509359889,
  "market_p": 0.4858611825192801,
  "divergence": 0.013357308017408587,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 8.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "none",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter down 1.3 mph in his last start",
    "share": 0.2647,
    "contribution": 0.11161,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
    "share": 0.2366,
    "contribution": -0.09977,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_getaway"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "lineup",
    "phrase": "Recent call-ups in both lineups",
    "share": 0.2071,
    "contribution": 0.08733,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_recent_debuts",
     "a_recent_debuts"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
    "share": 0.1475,
    "contribution": -0.06218,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30",
     "a_rs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Day game",
    "share": 0.1441,
    "contribution": 0.06075,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "wind_miss",
     "is_retract"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-16T18:00:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5093157337626423,
  "p_shipped": 0.4695250507410292,
  "model_mu": 9.532365080099254,
  "market_p": 0.4832904884318767,
  "divergence": 0.026025245330765556,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 8.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T18:00:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Day game",
    "share": 0.3369,
    "contribution": 0.19191,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "is_retract",
     "park_f5_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter down 1.3 mph in his last start",
    "share": 0.1959,
    "contribution": 0.11161,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
    "share": 0.1751,
    "contribution": -0.09977,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_getaway"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "lineup",
    "phrase": "Recent call-ups in both lineups",
    "share": 0.1533,
    "contribution": 0.08733,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_recent_debuts",
     "a_recent_debuts"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
    "share": 0.1388,
    "contribution": -0.07905,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_backup_catcher",
     "h_framing_miss",
     "a_cat_framing_prior"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]