Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-11T13:15:30Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4607102972466279,
"p_shipped": 0.49914644945781367,
"model_mu": 3.85818094559836,
"market_p": 0.5193798449612403,
"divergence": -0.05866954771461247,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-11T13:15:30Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.3023,
"contribution": -0.12879,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_rel_miss",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter strikes out 16.4% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.238,
"contribution": 0.10138,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_tto_decay",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
"share": 0.1839,
"contribution": -0.07833,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_cs30",
"h_wp_pb30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3.7 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.1679,
"contribution": -0.07154,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"h_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 state not known at grade time",
"share": 0.0541,
"contribution": 0.02304,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_retract",
"wx_miss",
"wind_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0538,
"contribution": 0.02294,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_k30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-11T22:00:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5243118357375856,
"p_shipped": 0.46552751771015055,
"model_mu": 5.21621854602358,
"market_p": 0.47680412371134023,
"divergence": 0.04750771202624532,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-11T22:00:36Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 reported open before first pitch",
"share": 0.3224,
"contribution": 0.12364,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"is_retract",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter strikes out 16.4% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.2644,
"contribution": 0.10138,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_tto_decay",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3.7 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.1866,
"contribution": -0.07154,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"h_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
"share": 0.1583,
"contribution": -0.06068,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_framing_miss",
"a_backup_catcher"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
"share": 0.0684,
"contribution": 0.02622,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_edge_cs_rel",
"ump_acc_rel"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-11T13:15:30Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.47652006332403135,
"p_shipped": 0.5020963504628525,
"model_mu": 7.380515046178722,
"market_p": 0.5064267352185091,
"divergence": -0.029906671894477765,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-11T13:15:30Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Heavy travel this week for the home team",
"share": 0.3256,
"contribution": 0.13395,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_miles7d_k",
"a_miles7d_k",
"a_dan"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3.7 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.2262,
"contribution": -0.09307,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1814,
"contribution": -0.07464,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_velo_dev"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1443,
"contribution": -0.05936,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_zone_miss",
"ump_gate_miss",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0717,
"contribution": 0.0295,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"h_err30",
"a_unearned30"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0508,
"contribution": -0.02092,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_b2b"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-11T22:00:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.551226023687549,
"p_shipped": 0.5122747670130435,
"model_mu": 8.55743128948058,
"market_p": 0.5205128205128204,
"divergence": 0.030713203174728587,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 7.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-11T22:00:36Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Heavy travel this week for the home team",
"share": 0.2788,
"contribution": 0.13395,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_miles7d_k",
"a_miles7d_k",
"a_dan"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
"share": 0.2522,
"contribution": 0.12116,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3.7 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.1937,
"contribution": -0.09307,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1554,
"contribution": -0.07464,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_velo_dev"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 reported open before first pitch",
"share": 0.1199,
"contribution": 0.05761,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_retract",
"park_f5_asof",
"temp_out"
]
}
]
}
]