Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-12T13:15:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.46408664121004534,
"p_shipped": 0.5036916804691699,
"model_mu": 3.969773184272855,
"market_p": 0.5064935064935064,
"divergence": -0.042406865283461104,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T13:15:36Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.3197,
"contribution": 0.10044,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_acc_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
"share": 0.2521,
"contribution": -0.07919,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_cs30",
"a_cat_framing_prior"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.2296,
"contribution": -0.07213,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"is_retract",
"wx_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3.8 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.1782,
"contribution": -0.05596,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter likely goes only an inning or two \u2014 relievers cover most of the game. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.0204,
"contribution": -0.0064,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_opener",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_inn1_whiff"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-12T18:00:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5098467515993834,
"p_shipped": 0.5033769258056268,
"model_mu": 5.253649428945995,
"market_p": 0.4987080103359174,
"divergence": 0.011138741263466034,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T18:00:36Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.3274,
"contribution": 0.12221,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"roof_open",
"is_retract"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.269,
"contribution": 0.10044,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_acc_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
"share": 0.2121,
"contribution": -0.07919,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_cs30",
"a_cat_framing_prior"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3.8 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.1499,
"contribution": -0.05596,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0416,
"contribution": -0.01553,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_k30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-12T13:15:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5381042859990394,
"p_shipped": 0.5024392019556997,
"model_mu": 7.88286446594045,
"market_p": 0.49612403100775193,
"divergence": 0.041980254991287436,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T13:15:36Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
"share": 0.3581,
"contribution": 0.14268,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_width_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3.8 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.1861,
"contribution": -0.07417,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter exits early \u2014 bullpen exposure",
"share": 0.1704,
"contribution": 0.06789,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_bf_per_start",
"h_sp_prev_pitches",
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.1514,
"contribution": 0.06032,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"wind_miss",
"is_retract"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The away team's bullpen rested the last three days",
"share": 0.1341,
"contribution": -0.05342,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_b2b",
"h_bp_pitches_3d"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-12T18:00:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5810617155826525,
"p_shipped": 0.5156661978242467,
"model_mu": 9.13509807152886,
"market_p": 0.5167095115681234,
"divergence": 0.06435220401452912,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T18:00:36Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.3789,
"contribution": 0.20629,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"is_retract",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
"share": 0.2621,
"contribution": 0.14268,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_width_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3.8 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.1362,
"contribution": -0.07417,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter exits early \u2014 bullpen exposure",
"share": 0.1247,
"contribution": 0.06789,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_bf_per_start",
"h_sp_prev_pitches",
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The away team's bullpen rested the last three days",
"share": 0.0981,
"contribution": -0.05342,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_b2b",
"h_bp_pitches_3d"
]
}
]
}
]