Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-19T13:15:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4919262002170178,
"p_shipped": 0.49829791146211494,
"model_mu": 3.6146839614853827,
"market_p": 0.5,
"divergence": -0.008073799782982227,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-19T13:15:21Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": null,
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter likely goes only an inning or two \u2014 relievers cover most of the game. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.6417,
"contribution": -0.1863,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_opener",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 state not known at grade time",
"share": 0.123,
"contribution": 0.03571,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_retract",
"wx_miss",
"wind_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
"share": 0.1033,
"contribution": 0.03,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30",
"a_cat_framing_prior"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "How closely this umpire's calls have matched the zone this past year, against the league",
"share": 0.0714,
"contribution": 0.02073,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0605,
"contribution": -0.01756,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_bb30",
"a_platoon_miss",
"a_off_k30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-19T22:00:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4907473646522029,
"p_shipped": 0.5166499706081988,
"model_mu": 4.5443408078836764,
"market_p": 0.518041237113402,
"divergence": -0.027293872461199076,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-19T22:00:21Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": null,
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter likely goes only an inning or two \u2014 relievers cover most of the game. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.5715,
"contribution": -0.1863,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_opener",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 reported closed before first pitch",
"share": 0.157,
"contribution": 0.05118,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_retract",
"wind_out_comp",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team lacks the lefty-righty edge in the lineup",
"share": 0.1158,
"contribution": -0.03775,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_platoon_share",
"h_off_bb30",
"a_off_k30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
"share": 0.092,
"contribution": 0.03,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30",
"a_cat_framing_prior"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "How closely this umpire's calls have matched the zone this past year, against the league",
"share": 0.0636,
"contribution": 0.02073,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-19T13:15:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.48632813479433024,
"p_shipped": 0.5010139230495341,
"model_mu": 6.705115554200049,
"market_p": 0.5116279069767442,
"divergence": -0.02529977218241397,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 7.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-19T13:15:21Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": null,
"factors": [
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.3958,
"contribution": -0.14205,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_b2b"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
"share": 0.2492,
"contribution": 0.08942,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_width_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1251,
"contribution": -0.04491,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"a_off_k30",
"h_off_bb30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Both teams allowing fewer runs than league average, last 30 games. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.096,
"contribution": 0.03446,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "No wind reading \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.0702,
"contribution": -0.02518,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"wind_miss",
"is_retract",
"wx_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0637,
"contribution": 0.02285,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"h_miles7d_k"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-19T22:00:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5053060444284091,
"p_shipped": 0.49135319022561136,
"model_mu": 8.005041175693634,
"market_p": 0.5038560411311055,
"divergence": 0.0014500032973036037,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 7.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-19T22:00:21Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": null,
"factors": [
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.3811,
"contribution": -0.14205,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_b2b"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
"share": 0.2399,
"contribution": 0.08942,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_width_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 reported closed before first pitch",
"share": 0.1511,
"contribution": 0.05633,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_retract",
"park_f5_asof",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1355,
"contribution": -0.05049,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"a_off_k30",
"h_off_bb30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Both teams allowing fewer runs than league average, last 30 games. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
"share": 0.0925,
"contribution": 0.03446,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30"
]
}
]
}
]