SPOTTER.
You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
Game View
first pitch 7:05 PM CDT

Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers

Sat 9/19 · 7:05 PM CDT · ump: unknown
FIRST 5 INNINGS · UNDER 4.0
C
C cards like this have won 51% under · market 49%
TOTAL
no lean
model 50% under · market 48%
the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are
THE PICTURE — what's driving the 6-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read
The away starter strikes out 33.6% of batters, adjusted — a higher strikeout rate than average48%
The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitchesagainst the under8%
Retractable roof — state not known at grade timeagainst the under8%
The away team allowing 3.8 runs a game, last 30 — below league average. Priced in, and it went too faragainst the under4%
Offense profile leans under — mostly the away team3%
WHAT WE COULDN'T SEEpriced into our number — not evidence about this game
No recent umpire zone reading against the league — graded on league-typical assumptions29%
Market: First-5-innings Under 4.0 at -103 (pinnacle, quoted 8:15 AM CDT) · model expects ~3.4 runs · divergence 6 points — band C. lean, not edge-demonstrated C-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. C cards in this market have won 50.9% of 1,034 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), -0.5 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.
Frozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · final grade comes about 70 minutes before first pitch.
SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE
Heavily used bullpenHot day (90°+)
Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. No weather read yet. Umpire not yet confirmed. Lineups not posted at grade time. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).
Raw grade details (all passes)
[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.45108799056343174,
  "p_shipped": 0.5023893138326592,
  "model_mu": 3.447534497291966,
  "market_p": 0.5116883116883117,
  "divergence": -0.06060032112488001,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "unknown",
  "weather_kind": "none",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter strikes out 33.6% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
    "share": 0.4849,
    "contribution": -0.21893,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_velo_dev",
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.2853,
    "contribution": -0.12879,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "ump_rel_miss",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
    "share": 0.0848,
    "contribution": 0.03827,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "a_cat_framing_prior",
     "h_wp_pb30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 state not known at grade time",
    "share": 0.079,
    "contribution": 0.03567,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "is_retract",
     "wx_miss",
     "wind_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 3.8 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
    "share": 0.04,
    "contribution": 0.01807,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "a_rs30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.026,
    "contribution": -0.01175,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_platoon_miss",
     "a_off_k30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.49346845780062365,
  "p_shipped": 0.5000275525827873,
  "model_mu": 6.851130506627653,
  "market_p": 0.5193798449612403,
  "divergence": -0.025911387160616695,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 7.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "unknown",
  "weather_kind": "none",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.3234,
    "contribution": 0.16357,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "h_miles7d_k",
     "a_miles7d_k"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1892,
    "contribution": -0.09569,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_pitches_3d",
     "h_bp_apps_3d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter strikes out 33.6% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
    "share": 0.1715,
    "contribution": -0.08674,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_velo_dev",
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.1173,
    "contribution": -0.05936,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "ump_zone_miss",
     "ump_gate_miss",
     "ump_acc_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 3.8 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
    "share": 0.1074,
    "contribution": 0.05434,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "a_rs30",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "No wind reading \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.0491,
    "contribution": -0.02485,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "wind_miss",
     "is_retract",
     "wx_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "The away team's defense sure-handed",
    "share": 0.0421,
    "contribution": -0.02129,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_unearned30",
     "a_err30",
     "h_unearned30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]