Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-05T13:15:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4996254126800811,
"p_shipped": 0.46240305891647765,
"model_mu": 3.2557392646632106,
"market_p": 0.4652956298200514,
"divergence": 0.03432978286002969,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 3.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T13:15:59Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Both starters strike out 28.6% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.3638,
"contribution": -0.14465,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_tto_decay"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under",
"share": 0.2093,
"contribution": -0.08324,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.2042,
"contribution": 0.08121,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_acc_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1333,
"contribution": -0.05302,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 state not known at grade time",
"share": 0.0893,
"contribution": 0.03551,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_retract",
"wx_miss",
"wind_miss"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-05T22:00:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5067775370696904,
"p_shipped": 0.47105249099378055,
"model_mu": 4.030237497600802,
"market_p": 0.4652956298200514,
"divergence": 0.041481907249639016,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 3.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T22:00:14Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Both starters strike out 28.6% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.3359,
"contribution": -0.14465,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_tto_decay"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under",
"share": 0.1933,
"contribution": -0.08324,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.1885,
"contribution": 0.08121,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_acc_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.164,
"contribution": -0.07061,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 reported closed before first pitch",
"share": 0.1184,
"contribution": 0.05098,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_retract",
"wind_out_comp",
"temp_out"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-05T13:15:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4748621376000346,
"p_shipped": 0.4841261072380728,
"model_mu": 6.445198623669509,
"market_p": 0.46803069053708446,
"divergence": 0.006831447062950136,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 7.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T13:15:59Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over",
"share": 0.223,
"contribution": 0.14023,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_whiff",
"h_sp_starts_c10"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.2204,
"contribution": -0.13853,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_apps_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2153,
"contribution": -0.13534,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"a_off_k30",
"h_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
"share": 0.1881,
"contribution": 0.11826,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_width_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1532,
"contribution": -0.09632,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30",
"a_elo"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-05T22:00:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4904040956242428,
"p_shipped": 0.5144371628992074,
"model_mu": 7.278509658471687,
"market_p": 0.5307692307692307,
"divergence": -0.04036513514498785,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 6.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T22:00:14Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over",
"share": 0.2228,
"contribution": 0.14023,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_whiff",
"h_sp_starts_c10"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.2201,
"contribution": -0.13853,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_apps_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2161,
"contribution": -0.136,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"a_off_k30",
"h_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
"share": 0.1879,
"contribution": 0.11826,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_width_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1531,
"contribution": -0.09632,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30",
"a_elo"
]
}
]
}
]