Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 16,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.5649109532619729,
"p_shipped": 0.5202375083682562,
"model_mu": 3.8836915430180254,
"market_p": 0.518041237113402,
"divergence": 0.04686971614857094,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone runs narrower than most \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.394,
"contribution": 0.24497,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_asof",
"ump_k_dev_sd",
"ump_rpg_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter strikes out 16.4% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.2506,
"contribution": 0.1558,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"a_sp_mix_drift"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 6.5 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.1812,
"contribution": -0.11263,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_elo",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.0888,
"contribution": -0.05522,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"is_retract",
"wx_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0854,
"contribution": -0.05307,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_xbh30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-02T17:30:47Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 16,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.6319700899864091,
"p_shipped": 0.5188700365206025,
"model_mu": 5.370280590348505,
"market_p": 0.5116279069767442,
"divergence": 0.12034218300966493,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T17:30:47Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone runs narrower than most \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.3478,
"contribution": 0.24497,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_asof",
"ump_k_dev_sd",
"ump_rpg_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter strikes out 16.4% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.2212,
"contribution": 0.1558,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"a_sp_mix_drift"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "98\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.2181,
"contribution": 0.15365,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"wind_out_comp",
"day_game"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 6.5 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.1599,
"contribution": -0.11263,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_elo",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
"share": 0.053,
"contribution": 0.03735,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_framing_miss",
"h_backup_catcher"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 12,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.4546320346285777,
"p_shipped": 0.4711783046005355,
"model_mu": 7.239991560609187,
"market_p": 0.4832904884318767,
"divergence": -0.02865845380329901,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2401,
"contribution": -0.16981,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
"share": 0.2149,
"contribution": 0.15198,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_width_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 6.5 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.2066,
"contribution": -0.14606,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
"share": 0.1986,
"contribution": -0.14043,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_getaway"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1398,
"contribution": 0.09884,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-02T17:30:47Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 12,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.5106695681437238,
"p_shipped": 0.49426328860932217,
"model_mu": 8.432704976883434,
"market_p": 0.517948717948718,
"divergence": -0.007279149804994223,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 7.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T17:30:47Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "98\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.3014,
"contribution": 0.25128,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"day_game",
"is_retract"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
"share": 0.1823,
"contribution": 0.15198,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_width_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 6.5 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.1752,
"contribution": -0.14606,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1727,
"contribution": -0.14403,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
"share": 0.1684,
"contribution": -0.14043,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_getaway"
]
}
]
}
]