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first pitch 7:05 PM CDT
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Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers

Sat 9/5 · 7:05 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed
TOTAL · UNDER 8.5 RUNS
C
C cards like this have won 52% under · market 49%
FIRST 5 INNINGS
no lean
model 51% over · market 50%
the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are
THE PICTURE — what's driving the 5-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read
The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games40%
Team strength & form leans under — mostly the away team20%
Starting pitchers leans overagainst the under14%
Retractable roof — reported closed before first pitchagainst the under14%
Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than mostagainst the under13%
Market: Under 8.5 runs at -102 (pinnacle, quoted 6:00 PM CDT) · model expects ~8.6 runs · divergence 5 points — band C. lean, not edge-demonstrated C-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. C cards in this market have won 52.2% of 2,317 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), +1.0 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.
Frozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held.
anchor Under 8.5 runs -102 → closed -102 · unchanged
SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE
Hot day (90°+)
Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip.
Raw grade details (all passes)
[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5151855069261402,
  "p_shipped": 0.487933404681638,
  "model_mu": 3.929252808076156,
  "market_p": 0.4922279792746114,
  "divergence": 0.022957527651528753,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "none",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter strikes out 15.7% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
    "share": 0.332,
    "contribution": 0.12489,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_opener",
     "h_sp_velo_dev"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.214,
    "contribution": -0.08048,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.1837,
    "contribution": 0.0691,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under",
    "share": 0.1761,
    "contribution": -0.06625,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 state not known at grade time",
    "share": 0.0942,
    "contribution": 0.03543,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "is_retract",
     "wx_miss",
     "wind_miss"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-04T23:00:59Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5146560400081056,
  "p_shipped": 0.5074681072660615,
  "model_mu": 4.934256875758587,
  "market_p": 0.5,
  "divergence": 0.014656040008105609,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T23:00:59Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter strikes out 15.7% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
    "share": 0.3052,
    "contribution": 0.12489,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_opener",
     "h_sp_velo_dev"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2397,
    "contribution": -0.09807,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.1689,
    "contribution": 0.0691,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under",
    "share": 0.1619,
    "contribution": -0.06625,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 reported closed before first pitch",
    "share": 0.1244,
    "contribution": 0.0509,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "is_retract",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.43712685767117065,
  "p_shipped": 0.48528411821776213,
  "model_mu": 7.232220422377942,
  "market_p": 0.493573264781491,
  "divergence": -0.05644640711032034,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 8.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "none",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.4151,
    "contribution": -0.17212,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_k30",
     "h_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.2107,
    "contribution": -0.08737,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over",
    "share": 0.1423,
    "contribution": 0.05901,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_velo_dev"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
    "share": 0.1322,
    "contribution": 0.05482,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_width_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "Defense leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0997,
    "contribution": -0.04136,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_err30",
     "a_unearned30",
     "h_unearned30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-04T23:00:59Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.45711190723036754,
  "p_shipped": 0.4930841803106212,
  "model_mu": 8.6429394501983,
  "market_p": 0.5089974293059126,
  "divergence": -0.05188552207554509,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 8.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T23:00:59Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.3994,
    "contribution": -0.17277,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_k30",
     "h_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.202,
    "contribution": -0.08737,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over",
    "share": 0.1364,
    "contribution": 0.05901,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_velo_dev"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 reported closed before first pitch",
    "share": 0.1355,
    "contribution": 0.05863,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "is_retract",
     "park_f5_asof",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
    "share": 0.1267,
    "contribution": 0.05482,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_width_asof"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]