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first pitch 7:05 PM CDT
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Athletics @ Texas Rangers

Wed 9/2 · 7:05 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed
FIRST 5 INNINGS
no lean
model 48% under · market 48%
TOTAL
no lean
model 51% under · market 51%
the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are
THE PICTURE — what's driving the 1-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read
The away team allowing 6.4 runs a game, last 30 — above league average. Priced in, and it went too far — counts toward the under35%
How often this umpire's calls match the strike zoneagainst the under23%
Starting pitchers leans under23%
Retractable roof — reported closed before first pitchagainst the under16%
Offense profile leans under — mostly the away team3%
Market: First-5-innings Under 4.0 at +100 (pinnacle, quoted 6:00 PM CDT) · the full picture prices it +108 · model expects ~4.5 runs · divergence 1 point — band none.
Frozen C at 8:38 AM CDT · the market came toward our number · final grade no lean.
SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE
Time-zone spot (playing 2+ zones from home)Hot day (90°+)
Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).
Raw grade details (all passes)
[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-01T13:15:03Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 16,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.4959005179230929,
  "p_shipped": 0.49933520904654166,
  "model_mu": 3.519464582473892,
  "market_p": 0.5012919896640827,
  "divergence": -0.005391471740989806,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-01T13:15:03Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "none",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 6.4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
    "share": 0.3522,
    "contribution": -0.11093,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "a_elo",
     "a_rs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "How often this umpire's calls match the strike zone",
    "share": 0.2303,
    "contribution": 0.07252,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_acc_asof",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_k_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under",
    "share": 0.2285,
    "contribution": -0.07198,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_mix_drift"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 state not known at grade time",
    "share": 0.1147,
    "contribution": 0.03612,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "is_retract",
     "wx_miss",
     "wind_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0743,
    "contribution": -0.0234,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-01T23:00:25Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 16,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.503299448518744,
  "p_shipped": 0.5181770767410929,
  "model_mu": 4.473448453656891,
  "market_p": 0.5167958656330749,
  "divergence": -0.013496417114330916,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-01T23:00:25Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 6.4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
    "share": 0.3519,
    "contribution": -0.11093,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "a_elo",
     "a_rs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "How often this umpire's calls match the strike zone",
    "share": 0.23,
    "contribution": 0.07252,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_acc_asof",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_k_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under",
    "share": 0.2283,
    "contribution": -0.07198,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_mix_drift"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 reported closed before first pitch",
    "share": 0.162,
    "contribution": 0.05109,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "is_retract",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0278,
    "contribution": -0.00876,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-01T13:38:13Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 12,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.4216577992696698,
  "p_shipped": 0.4811710570150411,
  "model_mu": 6.504336596153605,
  "market_p": 0.47557840616966585,
  "divergence": -0.05392060689999606,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 7.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-01T13:38:13Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "none",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2242,
    "contribution": -0.14896,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_bb30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter threw 22 pitches last start",
    "share": 0.2189,
    "contribution": -0.14541,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_prev_pitches",
     "a_sp_bf_per_start",
     "a_sp_opener"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 6.4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
    "share": 0.2105,
    "contribution": -0.13987,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "a_rs30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
    "share": 0.181,
    "contribution": 0.12027,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_acc_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1653,
    "contribution": 0.10981,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_tz2"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-01T23:00:25Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 12,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.44584059414343274,
  "p_shipped": 0.48767492911324684,
  "model_mu": 7.845568268385306,
  "market_p": 0.493573264781491,
  "divergence": -0.04773267063805825,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 7.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-01T23:00:25Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter threw 22 pitches last start",
    "share": 0.2246,
    "contribution": -0.14541,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_prev_pitches",
     "a_sp_bf_per_start",
     "a_sp_opener"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 6.4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
    "share": 0.2161,
    "contribution": -0.13987,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "a_rs30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2039,
    "contribution": -0.13199,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_bb30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
    "share": 0.1858,
    "contribution": 0.12027,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_acc_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1696,
    "contribution": 0.10981,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_tz2"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]