SPOTTER.
You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
Game View
first pitch 6:10 PM CDT

Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays

Fri 9/18 · 6:10 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: unknown
FIRST 5 INNINGS · UNDER 4.0
C
C cards like this have won 51% under · market 51%
TOTAL
no lean
model 48% over · market 47%
the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are
THE PICTURE — what's driving the 6-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read
The home starter strikes out 30.2% of batters, adjusted — a higher strikeout rate than average54%
Offense profile leans over — mostly the home teamagainst the under13%
Team strength & form leans over — mostly the away teamagainst the under9%
Domed park — weather is neutralisedagainst the under4%
Behind the plate leans under — mostly the home team2%
WHAT WE COULDN'T SEEpriced into our number — not evidence about this game
No recent umpire zone reading against the league — graded on league-typical assumptions18%
Market: First-5-innings Under 4.0 at -111 (pinnacle, quoted 8:15 AM CDT) · model expects ~3.6 runs · divergence 6 points — band C. lean, not edge-demonstrated C-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. C cards in this market have won 50.9% of 1,034 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), -0.5 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.
Frozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · final grade comes about 70 minutes before first pitch.
SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE
none detected for this game
Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. Umpire not yet confirmed. Lineups not posted at grade time. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).
Raw grade details (all passes)
[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4323071643660542,
  "p_shipped": 0.4832518693106966,
  "model_mu": 3.6208476909579232,
  "market_p": 0.49350649350649356,
  "divergence": -0.06119932914043935,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "unknown",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter strikes out 30.2% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
    "share": 0.5436,
    "contribution": -0.39621,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_opener",
     "a_sp_mix_drift"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.1767,
    "contribution": -0.12879,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "ump_rel_miss",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1296,
    "contribution": 0.09449,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_k30",
     "a_platoon_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0912,
    "contribution": 0.06647,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_elo",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Domed park \u2014 weather is neutralised",
    "share": 0.0434,
    "contribution": 0.03166,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "is_dome",
     "alt_kft",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Behind the plate leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.0154,
    "contribution": -0.01126,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cs30",
     "a_cat_framing_prior",
     "h_wp_pb30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5161554962614104,
  "p_shipped": 0.48327180613716675,
  "model_mu": 7.0685437490814,
  "market_p": 0.4690721649484536,
  "divergence": 0.04708333131295683,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 7.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "unknown",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Domed park \u2014 weather is neutralised",
    "share": 0.2827,
    "contribution": 0.12957,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "is_dome",
     "park_f5_asof",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team striking out less than league average, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2166,
    "contribution": 0.09925,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_k30",
     "h_off_bb30",
     "a_platoon_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "The away team's defense sure-handed",
    "share": 0.147,
    "contribution": -0.06738,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_unearned30",
     "a_err30",
     "h_err30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "No travel at all this week for the home team",
    "share": 0.1313,
    "contribution": -0.06018,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "h_miles7d_k"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.1295,
    "contribution": -0.05936,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "ump_zone_miss",
     "ump_gate_miss",
     "ump_acc_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.0928,
    "contribution": 0.04255,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_starts_c10"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]