Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-12T13:15:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5001107048586549,
"p_shipped": 0.5220848800273917,
"model_mu": 3.979819217948235,
"market_p": 0.5231958762886597,
"divergence": -0.02308517143000477,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T13:15:36Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter strikes out 29.3% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.5539,
"contribution": -0.34074,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_opener",
"h_sp_tto_decay"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.2076,
"contribution": 0.12767,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_k30",
"h_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1569,
"contribution": 0.09649,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_elo",
"h_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Domed park \u2014 weather is neutralised",
"share": 0.0513,
"contribution": 0.03153,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_dome",
"alt_kft",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
"share": 0.0304,
"contribution": 0.01869,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_acc_rel"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-12T21:00:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4959179685387071,
"p_shipped": 0.5180583697235113,
"model_mu": 4.672923473488368,
"market_p": 0.5193798449612403,
"divergence": -0.023461876422533223,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T21:00:36Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter strikes out 29.3% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.5253,
"contribution": -0.34074,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_opener",
"h_sp_tto_decay"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.2208,
"contribution": 0.14319,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_k30",
"h_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1488,
"contribution": 0.09649,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_elo",
"h_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
"share": 0.0565,
"contribution": -0.03667,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_backup_catcher",
"a_cs30",
"a_cat_framing_prior"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Domed park \u2014 weather is neutralised",
"share": 0.0486,
"contribution": 0.03153,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_dome",
"alt_kft",
"wind_out_comp"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-12T13:15:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.6411808296367522,
"p_shipped": 0.5055655961120212,
"model_mu": 7.831480197768162,
"market_p": 0.5154639175257731,
"divergence": 0.12571691211097902,
"band": "A",
"anchor_line": 7.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T13:15:36Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
"share": 0.309,
"contribution": 0.18377,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_rpg_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Domed park \u2014 weather is neutralised",
"share": 0.2197,
"contribution": 0.13068,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_dome",
"park_f5_asof",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
"share": 0.215,
"contribution": 0.12785,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_b2b"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1552,
"contribution": 0.09229,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_starts_c10"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team striking out less than league average, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1012,
"contribution": 0.06017,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_k30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-12T21:00:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.638928198513012,
"p_shipped": 0.5016919745356997,
"model_mu": 8.832159976255712,
"market_p": 0.5089974293059126,
"divergence": 0.12993076920709934,
"band": "A",
"anchor_line": 7.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T21:00:36Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
"share": 0.3004,
"contribution": 0.18377,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_rpg_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Domed park \u2014 weather is neutralised",
"share": 0.2136,
"contribution": 0.13068,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_dome",
"park_f5_asof",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
"share": 0.209,
"contribution": 0.12785,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_b2b"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1509,
"contribution": 0.09229,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_starts_c10"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team striking out less than league average, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1261,
"contribution": 0.07714,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_k30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30"
]
}
]
}
]