SPOTTER.
← dashboard · slate board · game view →
You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
Game View
first pitch 5:40 PM CDT
→

New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays

Tue 9/1 · 5:40 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed
FIRST 5 INNINGS · OVER 4.0
C
C cards like this have won 51% over · market 52%
TOTAL
no lean
model 49% over · market 49%
the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are
THE PICTURE — what's driving the 6-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read
Offense profile leans over — mostly the home team28%
Umpire's strike zone runs narrower than most — fewer called strikes25%
The away starter mixed his pitches differently than usual last startagainst the over19%
Team strength & form leans over — mostly the away team18%
Backup catcher startingagainst the over10%
Market: First-5-innings Over 4.0 at -118 (pinnacle, quoted 4:30 PM CDT) · model expects ~5.3 runs · divergence 6 points — band C. lean, not edge-demonstrated C-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. C cards in this market have won 50.9% of 1,034 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), -0.5 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.
Frozen B at 8:15 AM CDT · the market came toward our number · final grade C. · the morning pass leaned B; this pass stands down.
anchor First-5 Over 4.0 -118 → closed -118 · unchanged
SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE
High-scoring umpire
Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).
Raw grade details (all passes)
[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-01T13:15:03Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 16,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.5659633832851386,
  "p_shipped": 0.49936382175370236,
  "model_mu": 4.8937552509774065,
  "market_p": 0.48062015503875977,
  "divergence": 0.08534322824637885,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-01T13:15:03Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone runs narrower than most \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.2785,
    "contribution": 0.13256,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_asof",
     "ump_k_dev_sd",
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.2501,
    "contribution": 0.11901,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_k30",
     "a_platoon_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter mixed his pitches differently than usual last start",
    "share": 0.2075,
    "contribution": -0.09873,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_mix_drift",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_inn1_whiff"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1987,
    "contribution": 0.09458,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Domed park \u2014 weather is neutralised",
    "share": 0.0652,
    "contribution": 0.03103,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "is_dome",
     "alt_kft",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-01T21:30:25Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 16,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.5849078466954758,
  "p_shipped": 0.5464054637998734,
  "model_mu": 5.274584909232878,
  "market_p": 0.5219638242894057,
  "divergence": 0.06294402240607011,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-01T21:30:25Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.2846,
    "contribution": 0.14948,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_k30",
     "h_platoon_share"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone runs narrower than most \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.2524,
    "contribution": 0.13256,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_asof",
     "ump_k_dev_sd",
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter mixed his pitches differently than usual last start",
    "share": 0.188,
    "contribution": -0.09873,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_mix_drift",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_inn1_whiff"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1801,
    "contribution": 0.09458,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
    "share": 0.095,
    "contribution": -0.04989,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_backup_catcher",
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "a_cat_framing_prior"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-01T13:38:13Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 12,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.5434785009219464,
  "p_shipped": 0.5063760609466618,
  "model_mu": 7.4679315856955455,
  "market_p": 0.5141388174807198,
  "divergence": 0.029339683441226616,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 7.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-01T13:38:13Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Domed park \u2014 weather is neutralised",
    "share": 0.3237,
    "contribution": 0.131,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "is_dome",
     "park_f5_asof",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.2395,
    "contribution": 0.09693,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.2216,
    "contribution": -0.08969,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "a_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_starts_c10"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team striking out less than league average, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1274,
    "contribution": 0.05155,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_k30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "a_platoon_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Light travel this week for the away team",
    "share": 0.0879,
    "contribution": 0.03556,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_miles7d_k"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-01T21:30:25Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 12,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.5317691573712483,
  "p_shipped": 0.4851603547232891,
  "model_mu": 8.863504406436142,
  "market_p": 0.4910025706940874,
  "divergence": 0.040766586677160876,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 8.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-01T21:30:25Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "push",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Domed park \u2014 weather is neutralised",
    "share": 0.287,
    "contribution": 0.131,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "is_dome",
     "park_f5_asof",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.2123,
    "contribution": 0.09693,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1965,
    "contribution": -0.08969,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "a_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_starts_c10"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team striking out less than league average, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1658,
    "contribution": 0.07569,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_k30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_bb30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
    "share": 0.1384,
    "contribution": -0.06318,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_backup_catcher",
     "a_cs30",
     "a_cat_framing_prior"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]