New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays

Wed 9/2 · 5:40 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

FIRST 5 INNINGS · OVER 4.5

B cards like this have won 49% over · market 50%

TOTAL · OVER 8.0 RUNS

C cards like this have won 52% over · market 50%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 9-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

The home starter hasn't thrown a major-league pitch in 30 days37%

Offense profile leans over — mostly the home team29%

Team strength & form leans over — mostly the away team17%

Backup catcher startingagainst the over10%

Domed park — weather is neutralised7%

Market: First-5-innings Over 4.5 at -106 (pinnacle, quoted 4:30 PM CDT) · model expects ~6.0 runs · divergence 9 points — band B. B-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. B cards in this market have won 49.2% of 620 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), -2.0 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.

FIRST 5Frozen B at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held. · both passes leaned this way.

TOTALFrozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held.

FIRST 5anchor First-5 Over 4.5 -106 → closed -108 · our way

TOTALanchor Over 8.0 runs -108 → closed -108 · unchanged

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Catcher rest spotGetaway day (day game, then travel)

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 16,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.5893496278559198,
  "p_shipped": 0.4987615629564582,
  "model_mu": 5.085505629556497,
  "market_p": 0.49612403100775193,
  "divergence": 0.09322559684816789,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter hasn't thrown a major-league pitch in 30 days",
    "share": 0.4305,
    "contribution": 0.17285,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "h_sp_gap_med"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.2573,
    "contribution": 0.10328,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_k30",
     "h_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.2013,
    "contribution": 0.08082,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Domed park \u2014 weather is neutralised",
    "share": 0.0771,
    "contribution": 0.03094,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "is_dome",
     "alt_kft",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "High-strikeout umpire zone",
    "share": 0.0338,
    "contribution": -0.01357,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_k_dev_sd",
     "ump_width_asof",
     "ump_acc_asof"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-02T21:30:30Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 16,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.5855616776513426,
  "p_shipped": 0.5014952964951566,
  "model_mu": 5.9792511223369145,
  "market_p": 0.4987080103359174,
  "divergence": 0.08685366731542521,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T21:30:30Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter hasn't thrown a major-league pitch in 30 days",
    "share": 0.3736,
    "contribution": 0.17285,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "h_sp_gap_med"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.2891,
    "contribution": 0.13375,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_k30",
     "h_platoon_share"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1747,
    "contribution": 0.08082,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
    "share": 0.0957,
    "contribution": -0.04429,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_backup_catcher",
     "a_cs30",
     "h_wp_pb30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Domed park \u2014 weather is neutralised",
    "share": 0.0669,
    "contribution": 0.03094,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "is_dome",
     "alt_kft",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 12,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.5681967735253012,
  "p_shipped": 0.49459686224287264,
  "model_mu": 7.497049434529516,
  "market_p": 0.4974226804123712,
  "divergence": 0.07077409311292998,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 8.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over",
    "share": 0.4213,
    "contribution": 0.25818,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_gap_med",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Domed park \u2014 weather is neutralised",
    "share": 0.2148,
    "contribution": 0.13163,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "is_dome",
     "park_f5_asof",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1488,
    "contribution": -0.09116,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_bp_apps_3d",
     "h_bp_apps_3d",
     "a_bp_b2b"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1198,
    "contribution": 0.07341,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team striking out less than league average, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.0953,
    "contribution": 0.05841,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_k30",
     "h_off_bb30",
     "a_platoon_miss"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-02T21:30:30Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 12,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.571031838620725,
  "p_shipped": 0.491083346227686,
  "model_mu": 8.418185967127057,
  "market_p": 0.5038560411311055,
  "divergence": 0.06717579748961955,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 8.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T21:30:30Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over",
    "share": 0.4054,
    "contribution": 0.25818,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_gap_med",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Domed park \u2014 weather is neutralised",
    "share": 0.2067,
    "contribution": 0.13163,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "is_dome",
     "park_f5_asof",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1431,
    "contribution": -0.09116,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_bp_apps_3d",
     "h_bp_apps_3d",
     "a_bp_b2b"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team striking out less than league average, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1296,
    "contribution": 0.08255,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_k30",
     "h_off_bb30",
     "a_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1153,
    "contribution": 0.07341,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]