Washington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals

Sat 9/19 · 6:15 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

TOTAL · OVER 8.5 RUNS

B cards like this have won 52% over · market 52% · stake 0.5u

FIRST 5 INNINGS · OVER 5.0

C cards like this have won 51% over · market 48%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 10-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

The home team allowing 5.8 runs a game, last 30 — above league average31%

93°F — heat carries the ball23%

Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most20%

Recent call-ups in both lineups15%

Backup catcher startingagainst the over12%

Market: Over 8.5 runs at -115 (pinnacle, quoted 5:00 PM CDT) · model expects ~10.0 runs · divergence 10 points — band B. B-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. B cards in this market have won 52.2% of 1,393 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), +1.2 points over break-even at the close. Plan cell · suggested stake 0.5u of the flat unit — the stake follows the cell, not this card's number.

FIRST 5Frozen B at 8:15 AM CDT · the market came toward our number · final grade C. · the morning pass leaned B; this pass stands down.

TOTALFrozen B at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held. · both passes leaned this way.

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Hot day (90°+)

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip.

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-19T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5707995703286851,
  "p_shipped": 0.4917382266447291,
  "model_mu": 5.386295714272742,
  "market_p": 0.4857881136950904,
  "divergence": 0.08501145663359472,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 5.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-19T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "96\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.4426,
    "contribution": 0.24777,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.2289,
    "contribution": 0.12813,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 5.8 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.1745,
    "contribution": 0.09766,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_rs30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter has thrown 459 pitches over 30 days",
    "share": 0.0794,
    "contribution": -0.04447,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.0746,
    "contribution": -0.04179,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-19T22:00:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5548634222588354,
  "p_shipped": 0.4822537835599996,
  "model_mu": 6.021106296472262,
  "market_p": 0.47680412371134023,
  "divergence": 0.07805929854749522,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 5.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-19T22:00:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "93\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.4048,
    "contribution": 0.20837,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.2489,
    "contribution": 0.12813,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 5.8 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.1897,
    "contribution": 0.09766,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_rs30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter has thrown 459 pitches over 30 days",
    "share": 0.0864,
    "contribution": -0.04447,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
    "share": 0.0701,
    "contribution": -0.03609,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_backup_catcher",
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "a_cat_framing_prior"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-19T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.6155097433141549,
  "p_shipped": 0.5049534419999387,
  "model_mu": 8.937001478358628,
  "market_p": 0.5256410256410255,
  "divergence": 0.08986871767312932,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 8.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-19T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 5.8 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.2784,
    "contribution": 0.18166,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_rs30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "96\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.2425,
    "contribution": 0.15822,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "park_f5_asof",
     "roof_open"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
    "share": 0.177,
    "contribution": 0.11551,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_width_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "lineup",
    "phrase": "Recent call-ups in both lineups",
    "share": 0.1338,
    "contribution": 0.08733,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_recent_debuts",
     "a_recent_debuts"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the home team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.1031,
    "contribution": -0.06727,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "h_framing_miss",
     "a_cat_framing_prior",
     "a_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Both teams below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.0652,
    "contribution": -0.04258,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-19T22:00:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.6147986682087985,
  "p_shipped": 0.5011376403440893,
  "model_mu": 10.011621806200877,
  "market_p": 0.5192802056555269,
  "divergence": 0.09551846255327157,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 8.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-19T22:00:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 5.8 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.3093,
    "contribution": 0.18166,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_rs30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "93\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.2256,
    "contribution": 0.13247,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "park_f5_asof",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
    "share": 0.1967,
    "contribution": 0.11551,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_width_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "lineup",
    "phrase": "Recent call-ups in both lineups",
    "share": 0.1487,
    "contribution": 0.08733,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_recent_debuts",
     "a_recent_debuts"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
    "share": 0.1197,
    "contribution": -0.0703,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_backup_catcher",
     "a_cat_framing_prior",
     "a_cs30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]