Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-12T13:15:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5772914001837568,
"p_shipped": 0.5238675734043148,
"model_mu": 4.978337630701615,
"market_p": 0.5142118863049095,
"divergence": 0.06307951387884725,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T13:15:36Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "87\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.4302,
"contribution": 0.19108,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team walking more than league average, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1712,
"contribution": 0.07606,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_bb30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.161,
"contribution": 0.07152,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_edge_cs_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 5.3 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
"share": 0.1411,
"contribution": 0.06268,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"h_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0965,
"contribution": -0.04287,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_tto_decay",
"a_sp_bf_per_start",
"a_sp_rest_z"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-12T22:00:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.582727278102734,
"p_shipped": 0.5220437644250625,
"model_mu": 5.943738656892123,
"market_p": 0.5116279069767442,
"divergence": 0.07109937112598974,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T22:00:36Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "89\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.4522,
"contribution": 0.22927,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team walking more than league average, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1806,
"contribution": 0.09157,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_bb30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.141,
"contribution": 0.07152,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_edge_cs_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 5.3 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
"share": 0.1236,
"contribution": 0.06268,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"h_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
"share": 0.1026,
"contribution": -0.05202,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_backup_catcher",
"h_cs30",
"a_cs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-12T13:15:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.6598729568611068,
"p_shipped": 0.4835024095253997,
"model_mu": 9.29240772656092,
"market_p": 0.4858611825192801,
"divergence": 0.17401177434182669,
"band": "A",
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T13:15:36Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
"share": 0.2359,
"contribution": 0.14756,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_b2b",
"h_bp_b2b"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Heavy travel this week for the home team",
"share": 0.2084,
"contribution": 0.13034,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"h_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
"share": 0.2016,
"contribution": 0.12612,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_rpg_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "87\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.1776,
"contribution": 0.11107,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"park_f5_asof",
"roof_open"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team above league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1766,
"contribution": 0.11046,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"a_off_bb30",
"a_platoon_miss"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-12T22:00:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.6627872563003819,
"p_shipped": 0.48042482200686887,
"model_mu": 10.571689724868031,
"market_p": 0.48071979434447304,
"divergence": 0.1820674619559089,
"band": "A",
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T22:00:36Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
"share": 0.2214,
"contribution": 0.14756,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_b2b",
"h_bp_b2b"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "89\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.2024,
"contribution": 0.13488,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"park_f5_asof",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Heavy travel this week for the home team",
"share": 0.1956,
"contribution": 0.13034,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"h_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team above league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1912,
"contribution": 0.12743,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"a_off_bb30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
"share": 0.1893,
"contribution": 0.12612,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_rpg_dev_sd"
]
}
]
}
]