SPOTTER.
You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
Game View
first pitch 7:15 PM CDT

Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals

Sat 9/12 · 7:15 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed
FIRST 5 INNINGS · OVER 4.5
B
B cards like this have won 49% over · market 48%
TOTAL · OVER 7.5 RUNS
C
C cards like this have won 52% over · market 52%
the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are
THE PICTURE — what's driving the 9-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read
Offense profile leans over28%
The home starter fades the third time through the order24%
Backup catcher startingagainst the over20%
Park & environment leans over16%
The home team allowing 5.4 runs a game, last 30 — above league average12%
Market: First-5-innings Over 4.5 at +102 (pinnacle, quoted 6:00 PM CDT) · model expects ~5.3 runs · divergence 9 points — band B. B-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. B cards in this market have won 49.2% of 620 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), -2.0 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.
FIRST 5Frozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the market moved away from it · final grade B. · new at this pass — the morning pass had no lean.
TOTALFrozen B at 8:15 AM CDT · the market came toward our number · final grade C. · the morning pass leaned B; this pass stands down.
FIRST 5anchor First-5 Over 4.5 +102 → closed +104 · away
TOTALanchor Over 7.5 runs -114 → closed -111 · away
SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE
Heavily used bullpen
Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).
Raw grade details (all passes)
[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-11T13:15:30Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.550092260846658,
  "p_shipped": 0.4863975973389663,
  "model_mu": 4.373349124232142,
  "market_p": 0.5012919896640827,
  "divergence": 0.04880027118257524,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-11T13:15:30Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "unknown",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.2657,
    "contribution": -0.12879,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "ump_rel_miss",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter fades the third time through the order",
    "share": 0.2465,
    "contribution": 0.11953,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_tto_decay",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team walking more than league average, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2217,
    "contribution": 0.10747,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_bb30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 5.4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.1299,
    "contribution": 0.06296,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "h_rs30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
    "share": 0.0949,
    "contribution": 0.046,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.0414,
    "contribution": 0.02006,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "a_framing_miss",
     "h_cs30",
     "a_cs30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-11T23:00:36Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5645679490005265,
  "p_shipped": 0.4813573192044351,
  "model_mu": 5.276425753539133,
  "market_p": 0.4780361757105944,
  "divergence": 0.08653177328993211,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-11T23:00:36Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans over",
    "share": 0.2761,
    "contribution": 0.14041,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_bb30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_platoon_share"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter fades the third time through the order",
    "share": 0.2351,
    "contribution": 0.11953,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_tto_decay",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
    "share": 0.2002,
    "contribution": -0.1018,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_backup_catcher",
     "a_backup_catcher",
     "h_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
    "share": 0.1648,
    "contribution": 0.0838,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 5.4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.1238,
    "contribution": 0.06296,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "h_rs30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-11T13:15:30Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5949412961926909,
  "p_shipped": 0.5060715184255313,
  "model_mu": 8.334677500174864,
  "market_p": 0.5038560411311055,
  "divergence": 0.09108525506158538,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 8.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-11T13:15:30Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "unknown",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
    "share": 0.2864,
    "contribution": 0.16146,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_bp_pitches_3d",
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "h_bp_apps_3d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team above league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2429,
    "contribution": 0.13694,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_bb30",
     "a_platoon_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 5.4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.2102,
    "contribution": 0.11851,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_rs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.1053,
    "contribution": -0.05936,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "ump_zone_miss",
     "ump_gate_miss",
     "ump_acc_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "lineup",
    "phrase": "2 recent call-ups for the home team",
    "share": 0.0824,
    "contribution": 0.04643,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_recent_debuts",
     "a_recent_debuts"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0729,
    "contribution": -0.04108,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rest0",
     "h_miles7d_k",
     "a_miles7d_k"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-11T23:00:36Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5889601723943345,
  "p_shipped": 0.5127723060810185,
  "model_mu": 8.79615283267548,
  "market_p": 0.5167095115681234,
  "divergence": 0.07225066082621112,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 7.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-11T23:00:36Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team above league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2702,
    "contribution": 0.16437,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_bb30",
     "h_platoon_share"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
    "share": 0.2654,
    "contribution": 0.16146,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_bp_pitches_3d",
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "h_bp_apps_3d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 5.4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.1948,
    "contribution": 0.11851,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_rs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
    "share": 0.1933,
    "contribution": -0.11758,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_backup_catcher",
     "h_framing_miss",
     "a_backup_catcher"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "lineup",
    "phrase": "2 recent call-ups for the home team",
    "share": 0.0763,
    "contribution": 0.04643,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_recent_debuts",
     "a_recent_debuts"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]