Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-10T13:15:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.45618656552340175,
"p_shipped": 0.4505403821224668,
"model_mu": 2.942985443546326,
"market_p": 0.46649484536082475,
"divergence": -0.010308279837422996,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 3.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-10T13:15:59Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter strikes out 28.7% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.476,
"contribution": -0.25685,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.1669,
"contribution": -0.09004,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"is_retract",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 6 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
"share": 0.1601,
"contribution": 0.08638,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.1507,
"contribution": -0.08132,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
"share": 0.0464,
"contribution": -0.02503,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_cs30",
"h_cs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-10T19:00:30Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4674554047242487,
"p_shipped": 0.47987101900180645,
"model_mu": 3.699769844331909,
"market_p": 0.4883720930232558,
"divergence": -0.020916688299007113,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 3.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-10T19:00:30Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter strikes out 28.7% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.4851,
"contribution": -0.25685,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 6 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
"share": 0.1631,
"contribution": 0.08638,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.1536,
"contribution": -0.08132,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1,
"contribution": 0.05294,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"h_platoon_share"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.0983,
"contribution": -0.05203,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"roof_open",
"is_retract"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-10T13:15:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5486486905035632,
"p_shipped": 0.49910661025742464,
"model_mu": 6.286380416196422,
"market_p": 0.4922680412371133,
"divergence": 0.05638064926644992,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 6.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-10T13:15:59Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 6 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
"share": 0.3006,
"contribution": 0.15933,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.2216,
"contribution": 0.11748,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"park_f5_asof",
"day_game",
"wind_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2158,
"contribution": -0.11438,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_bb30"
]
},
{
"family": "lineup",
"phrase": "3 recent call-ups for the home team",
"share": 0.1637,
"contribution": 0.08675,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_recent_debuts",
"a_recent_debuts"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire gives pitchers the borderline call more than most",
"share": 0.0983,
"contribution": -0.05211,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_rpg_dev_sd"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-10T19:00:30Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5489866011304748,
"p_shipped": 0.4810145612857273,
"model_mu": 7.760538852997844,
"market_p": 0.4743589743589744,
"divergence": 0.07462762677150042,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 7.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-10T19:00:30Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "push",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.293,
"contribution": 0.16167,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"park_f5_asof",
"day_game",
"is_retract"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 6 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
"share": 0.2888,
"contribution": 0.15933,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1665,
"contribution": -0.09188,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_bb30"
]
},
{
"family": "lineup",
"phrase": "3 recent call-ups for the home team",
"share": 0.1572,
"contribution": 0.08675,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_recent_debuts",
"a_recent_debuts"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire gives pitchers the borderline call more than most",
"share": 0.0944,
"contribution": -0.05211,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_rpg_dev_sd"
]
}
]
}
]