Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners

Wed 9/9 · 3:10 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

FIRST 5 INNINGS · OVER 4.5

A cards like this have won 55% over · market 47% · stake 1u

TOTAL · OVER 8.0 RUNS

B cards like this have won 52% over · market 51% · stake 0.5u

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 14-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

The away starter strikes out 16.2% of batters, adjusted — a lower strikeout rate than average62%

The home team allowing 6.3 runs a game, last 30 — above league average20%

Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year — fewer called strikes7%

Offense profile leans over — mostly the home team6%

The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plateagainst the over5%

Market: First-5-innings Over 4.5 at +106 (pinnacle, quoted 2:00 PM CDT) · model expects ~5.7 runs · divergence 14 points — band A. A-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. A cards in this market have won 54.6% of 414 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), +3.7 points over break-even at the close. Plan cell · suggested stake 1u of the flat unit — the stake follows the cell, not this card's number.

FIRST 5Frozen B at 8:15 AM CDT · the market moved away from it · final grade A. · both passes leaned this way.

TOTALFrozen B at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held. · both passes leaned this way.

FIRST 5anchor First-5 Over 4.5 +106 → closed +105 · our way

TOTALanchor Over 8.0 runs -110 → closed -108 · away

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Catcher rest spotSeptember call-up lineupVeteran rest spotDay game after a night gameTime-zone spot (playing 2+ zones from home)

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
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  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
  "rung": "l1",
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  "feature_version": 5,
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  "p_shipped": 0.4941445792714113,
  "model_mu": 4.506196767748181,
  "market_p": 0.49095607235142114,
  "divergence": 0.09574927639555064,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "none",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter strikes out 16.2% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
    "share": 0.5455,
    "contribution": 0.31729,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 6.3 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.1814,
    "contribution": 0.10548,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_rs30",
     "h_rs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Day game",
    "share": 0.1548,
    "contribution": -0.09003,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "is_retract",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.0663,
    "contribution": 0.03858,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
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    "share": 0.052,
    "contribution": 0.03025,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-09T19:00:59Z",
  "rung": "l1",
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  "divergence": 0.14184642121766705,
  "band": "A",
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  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T19:00:59Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter strikes out 16.2% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
    "share": 0.6154,
    "contribution": 0.31729,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
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    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 6.3 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.2046,
    "contribution": 0.10548,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_rs30",
     "h_rs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.0748,
    "contribution": 0.03858,
    "kind": "driver",
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     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
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    "share": 0.0567,
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    "kind": "driver",
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     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
    "share": 0.0486,
    "contribution": -0.02503,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "a_cs30",
     "h_cs30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
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  "graded_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
  "rung": "l1",
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  "divergence": 0.11678519546203098,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 8.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "none",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 6.3 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.3229,
    "contribution": 0.19312,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_rs30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2051,
    "contribution": -0.12264,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_k30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
    "share": 0.1963,
    "contribution": 0.11737,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "park_f5_asof",
     "day_game",
     "wind_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "lineup",
    "phrase": "3 recent call-ups for the home team",
    "share": 0.1451,
    "contribution": 0.08675,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_recent_debuts",
     "a_recent_debuts"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1307,
    "contribution": 0.07816,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
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  "graded_utc": "2026-09-09T19:00:59Z",
  "rung": "l1",
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  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T19:00:59Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
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    "share": 0.2963,
    "contribution": 0.19892,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "park_f5_asof",
     "day_game",
     "is_retract"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 6.3 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.2876,
    "contribution": 0.19312,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_rs30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1705,
    "contribution": -0.11448,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_k30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "lineup",
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     "a_recent_debuts"
    ]
   },
   {
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    "features": [
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]