SPOTTER.
You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
Game View
first pitch 3:10 PM CDT

Athletics @ Seattle Mariners

Sun 9/6 · 3:10 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed
FIRST 5 INNINGS
no lean
model 46% over · market 48%
TOTAL
no lean
model 50% under · market 48%
the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are
THE PICTURE — what's driving the 2-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read
Offense profile leans over — mostly the home team37%
Day gameagainst the over21%
The home starter up 1 mph in his last startagainst the over16%
Team strength & form leans under — mostly the away teamagainst the over13%
How closely this umpire's calls have matched the zone this past year, against the leagueagainst the over12%
Market: First-5-innings Over 4.0 at +102 (pinnacle, quoted 2:00 PM CDT) · the full picture prices it +115 · model expects ~4.4 runs · divergence 2 points — band none.
SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE
Heavily used bullpenCatcher rest spotVeteran rest spotDay game after a night gameGetaway day (day game, then travel)Deep into a road trip (game 7+)
Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).
Raw grade details (all passes)
[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4851010044378558,
  "p_shipped": 0.47832441416997135,
  "model_mu": 3.577017530304991,
  "market_p": 0.49612403100775193,
  "divergence": -0.011023026569896122,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "none",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Day game",
    "share": 0.3355,
    "contribution": -0.09022,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "is_retract",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.3018,
    "contribution": 0.08115,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter up 1 mph in his last start",
    "share": 0.1384,
    "contribution": -0.03721,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_velo_dev"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1169,
    "contribution": -0.03144,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "How closely this umpire's calls have matched the zone this past year, against the league",
    "share": 0.1075,
    "contribution": -0.0289,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-06T19:00:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4963918947185607,
  "p_shipped": 0.46463593373550766,
  "model_mu": 4.39504328393423,
  "market_p": 0.4780361757105944,
  "divergence": 0.018355719007966287,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T19:00:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.3728,
    "contribution": 0.08786,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Day game",
    "share": 0.2133,
    "contribution": -0.05027,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "roof_open",
     "is_retract"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter up 1 mph in his last start",
    "share": 0.1579,
    "contribution": -0.03721,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_velo_dev"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1334,
    "contribution": -0.03144,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "How closely this umpire's calls have matched the zone this past year, against the league",
    "share": 0.1226,
    "contribution": -0.0289,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5058637169148639,
  "p_shipped": 0.5094546822183322,
  "model_mu": 6.494434266980799,
  "market_p": 0.5244215938303342,
  "divergence": -0.018557876915470284,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 7.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "none",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
    "share": 0.4229,
    "contribution": -0.27698,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_getaway"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
    "share": 0.2608,
    "contribution": 0.17078,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_bp_b2b",
     "a_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_apps_3d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
    "share": 0.1816,
    "contribution": 0.11894,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "park_f5_asof",
     "day_game",
     "wind_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "lineup",
    "phrase": "2 recent call-ups for the home team",
    "share": 0.0709,
    "contribution": 0.04643,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_recent_debuts",
     "a_recent_debuts"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "Defense leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0639,
    "contribution": -0.04182,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_err30",
     "a_unearned30",
     "h_unearned30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-06T19:00:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5040186894557757,
  "p_shipped": 0.500547483985564,
  "model_mu": 7.527818218087582,
  "market_p": 0.5218508997429305,
  "divergence": -0.01783221028715487,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 7.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T19:00:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
    "share": 0.3465,
    "contribution": -0.27698,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_getaway"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
    "share": 0.2137,
    "contribution": 0.17078,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_bp_b2b",
     "a_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_apps_3d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
    "share": 0.2044,
    "contribution": 0.16337,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "park_f5_asof",
     "day_game",
     "is_retract"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
    "share": 0.125,
    "contribution": -0.09992,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "a_framing_miss",
     "h_backup_catcher",
     "h_framing_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "lineup",
    "phrase": "2 recent call-ups for the home team",
    "share": 0.0581,
    "contribution": 0.04643,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_recent_debuts",
     "a_recent_debuts"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "Defense leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0523,
    "contribution": -0.04182,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_err30",
     "a_unearned30",
     "h_unearned30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]