Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5648233875047646,
"p_shipped": 0.44814748976199154,
"model_mu": 4.862738197910704,
"market_p": 0.4694960212201591,
"divergence": 0.09532736628460547,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "fanduel",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "No prior major-league start on record for both starters \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.4664,
"contribution": 0.27733,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"h_sp_days_rest_miss",
"a_sp_days_rest_miss",
"h_sp_pitch_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.2166,
"contribution": -0.12879,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_rel_miss",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 6 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
"share": 0.1869,
"contribution": 0.11113,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0796,
"contribution": 0.04736,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_k30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
"share": 0.0421,
"contribution": -0.02503,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_cs30",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 state not known at grade time",
"share": 0.0083,
"contribution": 0.00494,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_retract",
"alt_kft",
"wx_miss"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-09T00:30:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.580119837292993,
"p_shipped": 0.5305383537453587,
"model_mu": 4.553333091067031,
"market_p": 0.5219638242894057,
"divergence": 0.058156013003587304,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T00:30:36Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 6 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
"share": 0.3475,
"contribution": 0.11113,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.2429,
"contribution": 0.0777,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"h_platoon_share"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
"share": 0.1502,
"contribution": -0.04804,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_backup_catcher",
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_cat_framing_prior"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "How closely this umpire's calls have matched the zone this past year, against the league",
"share": 0.1364,
"contribution": 0.04364,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_width_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over",
"share": 0.1229,
"contribution": 0.03931,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_mix_drift",
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"a_sp_opener"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.624445373852561,
"p_shipped": 0.5230692466793784,
"model_mu": 8.334468696813254,
"market_p": 0.5343511450381679,
"divergence": 0.0900942288143931,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 7.5,
"anchor_book": "onexbet",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 6 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
"share": 0.25,
"contribution": 0.19963,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "No pitch-tracking data for both starters \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.2279,
"contribution": 0.18202,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitch_miss",
"a_sp_pitch_miss",
"h_sp_days_rest_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans over",
"share": 0.1615,
"contribution": 0.12895,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_tz2",
"h_miles7d_k",
"a_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1276,
"contribution": -0.10189,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_bb30"
]
},
{
"family": "lineup",
"phrase": "3 recent call-ups for the home team",
"share": 0.1086,
"contribution": 0.08675,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_recent_debuts",
"a_recent_debuts"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.0743,
"contribution": -0.05936,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_zone_miss",
"ump_gate_miss",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.0501,
"contribution": 0.03997,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"park_f5_asof",
"wind_miss",
"is_retract"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-09T00:30:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5983093469984831,
"p_shipped": 0.4899584410958639,
"model_mu": 8.58949151271946,
"market_p": 0.493573264781491,
"divergence": 0.10473608221699215,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 7.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T00:30:36Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 6 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
"share": 0.3361,
"contribution": 0.19963,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans over",
"share": 0.2171,
"contribution": 0.12895,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_tz2",
"h_miles7d_k",
"a_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter likely goes only an inning or two \u2014 relievers cover most of the game. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.1562,
"contribution": -0.09277,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_opener",
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "lineup",
"phrase": "3 recent call-ups for the home team",
"share": 0.146,
"contribution": 0.08675,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_recent_debuts",
"a_recent_debuts"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
"share": 0.1447,
"contribution": 0.08594,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_width_asof"
]
}
]
}
]