Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.49787402987004875,
"p_shipped": 0.4748573715418331,
"model_mu": 3.393277492032809,
"market_p": 0.49610389610389616,
"divergence": 0.0017701337661525929,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter has thrown 479 pitches over 30 days",
"share": 0.5503,
"contribution": -0.15426,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_callup_green",
"a_sp_starts_c10"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1982,
"contribution": 0.05556,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_bb30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "How closely this umpire's calls have matched the zone this past year, against the league",
"share": 0.1511,
"contribution": 0.04237,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_width_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0547,
"contribution": -0.01534,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_ra30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
"share": 0.0456,
"contribution": -0.01278,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30",
"a_cs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-05T01:00:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5093507161354551,
"p_shipped": 0.46505108223980807,
"model_mu": 4.159120198531149,
"market_p": 0.4832041343669251,
"divergence": 0.02614658176853002,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T01:00:59Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter has thrown 479 pitches over 30 days",
"share": 0.4848,
"contribution": -0.15426,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_callup_green",
"a_sp_starts_c10"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.27,
"contribution": 0.0859,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"h_platoon_share"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "How closely this umpire's calls have matched the zone this past year, against the league",
"share": 0.1331,
"contribution": 0.04237,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_width_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 reported open before first pitch",
"share": 0.0639,
"contribution": 0.02033,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"is_retract",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0482,
"contribution": -0.01534,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_ra30",
"a_elo"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5138005624852294,
"p_shipped": 0.518180866093712,
"model_mu": 6.336146688627551,
"market_p": 0.518041237113402,
"divergence": -0.004240674628172569,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 7.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter likely goes only an inning or two \u2014 relievers cover most of the game. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.3231,
"contribution": -0.16482,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_opener",
"a_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_starts_c10"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
"share": 0.2684,
"contribution": 0.13693,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"h_bp_pitches_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans under",
"share": 0.2094,
"contribution": -0.10684,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_bb30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_platoon_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
"share": 0.1081,
"contribution": 0.05513,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_rpg_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "lineup",
"phrase": "2 recent call-ups for the home team",
"share": 0.091,
"contribution": 0.04643,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_recent_debuts",
"a_recent_debuts"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-05T01:00:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5259871701504508,
"p_shipped": 0.513104417020359,
"model_mu": 7.449311440413093,
"market_p": 0.5218508997429305,
"divergence": 0.004136270407520293,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 7.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T01:00:59Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter likely goes only an inning or two \u2014 relievers cover most of the game. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.3238,
"contribution": -0.16482,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_opener",
"a_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_starts_c10"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
"share": 0.269,
"contribution": 0.13693,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"h_bp_pitches_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1657,
"contribution": -0.08434,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_bb30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.1332,
"contribution": 0.06777,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"park_f5_asof",
"is_retract",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
"share": 0.1083,
"contribution": 0.05513,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_rpg_dev_sd"
]
}
]
}
]