SPOTTER.
You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
Game View
first pitch 8:40 PM CDT

Athletics @ Seattle Mariners

Sun 9/6 · 8:40 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed
FIRST 5 INNINGS
no lean
model 51% over · market 51%
TOTAL
no lean
model 50% over · market 50%
the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are
THE PICTURE — what's driving the 4-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read
The away starter recently back from injury36%
Offense profile leans over — mostly the home team33%
Team strength & form leans under — mostly the away teamagainst the over11%
The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plateagainst the over11%
Retractable roof — reported closed before first pitch9%
Market: First-5-innings Over 4.0 at -114 (pinnacle, quoted 7:30 PM CDT) · the full picture prices it -103 · model expects ~4.8 runs · divergence 4 points — band none.
SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE
Heavily used bullpen
Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).
Raw grade details (all passes)
[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-05T13:15:59Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5209767717419402,
  "p_shipped": 0.49067650887924213,
  "model_mu": 4.002230913367605,
  "market_p": 0.49870129870129865,
  "divergence": 0.02227547304064159,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T13:15:59Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "none",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter recently back from injury",
    "share": 0.374,
    "contribution": 0.08189,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_il_return",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.366,
    "contribution": 0.08012,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_bb30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1184,
    "contribution": -0.02593,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
    "share": 0.1127,
    "contribution": -0.02467,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "a_cs30",
     "h_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "How closely this umpire's calls have matched the zone this past year, against the league",
    "share": 0.0289,
    "contribution": -0.00633,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-06T00:30:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5481408214901511,
  "p_shipped": 0.5076202217550582,
  "model_mu": 4.778299953975627,
  "market_p": 0.5129533678756476,
  "divergence": 0.03518745361450348,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T00:30:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "push",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter recently back from injury",
    "share": 0.3568,
    "contribution": 0.08189,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_il_return",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.3333,
    "contribution": 0.07649,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_bb30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.113,
    "contribution": -0.02593,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
    "share": 0.1075,
    "contribution": -0.02467,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "a_cs30",
     "h_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 reported closed before first pitch",
    "share": 0.0894,
    "contribution": 0.02052,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "is_retract",
     "alt_kft",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-05T13:15:59Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5205500722433758,
  "p_shipped": 0.4895664087988068,
  "model_mu": 7.108688581539871,
  "market_p": 0.4832041343669251,
  "divergence": 0.037345937876450686,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 8.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T13:15:59Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "none",
  "result": "push",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Both teams' bullpens worked hard the last three days",
    "share": 0.3279,
    "contribution": 0.09509,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_bp_pitches_3d",
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "h_bp_apps_3d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1866,
    "contribution": -0.05412,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1803,
    "contribution": -0.05228,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_bb30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_platoon_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "lineup",
    "phrase": "2 recent call-ups for the home team",
    "share": 0.1601,
    "contribution": 0.04643,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_recent_debuts",
     "a_recent_debuts"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The away team throws out base stealers",
    "share": 0.1452,
    "contribution": -0.0421,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_cs30",
     "a_wp_pb30",
     "h_cs30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-06T00:30:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5485894622325366,
  "p_shipped": 0.5042405206249353,
  "model_mu": 8.161305335764302,
  "market_p": 0.5038560411311055,
  "divergence": 0.04473342110143108,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 7.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T00:30:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
    "share": 0.3301,
    "contribution": 0.12059,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "park_f5_asof",
     "is_retract",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Both teams' bullpens worked hard the last three days",
    "share": 0.2603,
    "contribution": 0.09509,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_bp_pitches_3d",
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "h_bp_apps_3d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1482,
    "contribution": -0.05412,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1343,
    "contribution": -0.04906,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_bb30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_k30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "lineup",
    "phrase": "2 recent call-ups for the home team",
    "share": 0.1271,
    "contribution": 0.04643,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_recent_debuts",
     "a_recent_debuts"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]