Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-03T13:15:19Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 16,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.49075323099364315,
"p_shipped": 0.4892227302400661,
"model_mu": 3.4993951238025796,
"market_p": 0.5064599483204134,
"divergence": -0.01570671732677026,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-03T13:15:19Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No umpire tendency history \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.5459,
"contribution": -0.25203,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_gate_miss",
"ump_zone_miss",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter has thrown 166 pitches over 30 days",
"share": 0.2429,
"contribution": 0.11215,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_velo_dev",
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1177,
"contribution": 0.05434,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_bb30",
"h_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0495,
"contribution": -0.02284,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_ra30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
"share": 0.0356,
"contribution": -0.01645,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30",
"a_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 state not known at grade time",
"share": 0.0085,
"contribution": 0.00391,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_retract",
"alt_kft",
"wx_miss"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-04T00:30:01Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 16,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.6108621791097298,
"p_shipped": 0.507150498155241,
"model_mu": 4.748585549023419,
"market_p": 0.4935400516795866,
"divergence": 0.11732212743014325,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T00:30:01Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone runs narrower than most \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.295,
"contribution": 0.1238,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_asof",
"ump_k_dev_sd",
"ump_rpg_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter has thrown 166 pitches over 30 days",
"share": 0.2672,
"contribution": 0.11215,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_velo_dev",
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.2026,
"contribution": 0.08501,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_platoon_share",
"h_off_bb30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.1808,
"contribution": 0.07586,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"temp_out",
"is_retract"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0544,
"contribution": -0.02284,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_ra30",
"a_elo"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-03T13:15:19Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 12,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.49033829221227415,
"p_shipped": 0.5051294864542425,
"model_mu": 6.551559897532886,
"market_p": 0.5141388174807198,
"divergence": -0.023800525268445616,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 7.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-03T13:15:19Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Early-season sample on the home starter (2 starts)",
"share": 0.2869,
"contribution": -0.16209,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"a_sp_opener",
"a_sp_inn1_whiff"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Heavy travel this week for the home team",
"share": 0.1927,
"contribution": 0.10888,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"h_miles7d_k",
"a_rest0"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans under",
"share": 0.1808,
"contribution": -0.10217,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_bb30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"a_platoon_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The home team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
"share": 0.1523,
"contribution": 0.08608,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_b2b"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1051,
"contribution": -0.05936,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_zone_miss",
"ump_gate_miss",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "lineup",
"phrase": "2 recent call-ups for the home team",
"share": 0.0822,
"contribution": 0.04643,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_recent_debuts",
"a_recent_debuts"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-04T00:30:01Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 12,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.5453550723757766,
"p_shipped": 0.4762240978030623,
"model_mu": 8.173385430221428,
"market_p": 0.47814910025706947,
"divergence": 0.06720597211870716,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 7.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T00:30:01Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Early-season sample on the home starter (2 starts)",
"share": 0.3011,
"contribution": -0.16209,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"a_sp_opener",
"a_sp_inn1_whiff"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Heavy travel this week for the home team",
"share": 0.2022,
"contribution": 0.10888,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"h_miles7d_k",
"a_rest0"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.1685,
"contribution": 0.09073,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"park_f5_asof",
"temp_out",
"is_retract"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
"share": 0.1683,
"contribution": 0.09063,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_rpg_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The home team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
"share": 0.1599,
"contribution": 0.08608,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_b2b"
]
}
]
}
]