San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants

Sat 9/12 · 3:05 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

FIRST 5 INNINGS · OVER 4.0

B cards like this have won 49% over · market 53%

TOTAL · OVER 8.0 RUNS

B cards like this have won 52% over · market 50% · stake 0.5u

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 11-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

The home starter has thrown 141 pitches over 30 days40%

Wind blowing out, ~16 mph net21%

The away team allowing 3.2 runs a game, last 30 — below league average. Priced in, and it went too far — counts toward the over19%

Offense profile leans over — mostly the home team13%

How closely this umpire's calls have matched the zone this past year, against the league8%

Market: First-5-innings Over 4.0 at -123 (pinnacle, quoted 2:00 PM CDT) · model expects ~5.5 runs · divergence 11 points — band B. B-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. B cards in this market have won 49.2% of 620 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), -2.0 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.

FIRST 5Frozen B at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held. · both passes leaned this way.

TOTALFrozen B at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held. · both passes leaned this way.

FIRST 5anchor First-5 Over 4.0 -123 → closed -120 · away

TOTALanchor Over 8.0 runs -105 → closed +102 · away

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Wind blowing outCatcher rest spotVeteran rest spotDay game after a night game

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
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  "pass_kind": "first",
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  "rung": "l1",
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  "feature_version": 5,
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  "divergence": 0.10574143333465347,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T13:15:36Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter has thrown 141 pitches over 30 days",
    "share": 0.3908,
    "contribution": 0.20413,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_mix_drift",
     "a_sp_velo_dev"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~18 mph net",
    "share": 0.2517,
    "contribution": 0.13146,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "wind_out_comp",
     "day_game",
     "roof_open"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 3.2 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
    "share": 0.1867,
    "contribution": 0.09753,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.0965,
    "contribution": 0.0504,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "a_platoon_miss",
     "a_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "How closely this umpire's calls have matched the zone this past year, against the league",
    "share": 0.0743,
    "contribution": 0.03878,
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    "features": [
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
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  "graded_utc": "2026-09-12T19:00:36Z",
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  "feature_version": 5,
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  "divergence": 0.10592741894222069,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T19:00:36Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter has thrown 141 pitches over 30 days",
    "share": 0.3955,
    "contribution": 0.20413,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_mix_drift",
     "a_sp_velo_dev"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~16 mph net",
    "share": 0.2144,
    "contribution": 0.11069,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "wind_out_comp",
     "day_game",
     "roof_open"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 3.2 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
    "share": 0.1889,
    "contribution": 0.09753,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
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    "share": 0.126,
    "contribution": 0.06505,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_bb30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "How closely this umpire's calls have matched the zone this past year, against the league",
    "share": 0.0751,
    "contribution": 0.03878,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-12T13:15:36Z",
  "rung": "l1",
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  "feature_version": 5,
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  "market_p": 0.493573264781491,
  "divergence": 0.0921911899009844,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 8.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T13:15:36Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
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  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 3.2 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
    "share": 0.2695,
    "contribution": 0.17741,
    "kind": "driver",
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     "a_ra30",
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     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~18 mph net",
    "share": 0.2672,
    "contribution": 0.1759,
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     "wind_out_comp",
     "day_game",
     "park_f5_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "The home team's bullpen rested the last three days",
    "share": 0.1815,
    "contribution": -0.11946,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_apps_3d",
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "h_bp_k_pct30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The away team throws out base stealers",
    "share": 0.1565,
    "contribution": -0.10302,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_cs30",
     "h_framing_miss",
     "a_wp_pb30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
    "share": 0.1253,
    "contribution": 0.08249,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_width_asof"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
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  "graded_utc": "2026-09-12T19:00:36Z",
  "rung": "l1",
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  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 8.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T19:00:36Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 3.2 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
    "share": 0.2831,
    "contribution": 0.17741,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~16 mph net",
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    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "wind_out_comp",
     "day_game",
     "park_f5_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
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    "features": [
     "h_bp_apps_3d",
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "h_bp_k_pct30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
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    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_width_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The away team throws out base stealers",
    "share": 0.1284,
    "contribution": -0.08046,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_cs30",
     "a_framing_miss",
     "h_framing_miss"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]