St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants

Wed 9/9 · 2:45 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

FIRST 5 INNINGS · OVER 4.5

C cards like this have won 51% over · market 47%

TOTAL

no lean

model 51% under · market 50%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 5-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

Team strength & form leans under — mostly the away teamagainst the over35%

The home starter down 2.1 mph in his last start26%

93°F — heat carries the ball21%

Offense profile leans over — mostly the home team11%

Umpire leans over2%

WHAT WE COULDN'T SEEpriced into our number — not evidence about this game

No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher — graded at league average6%

Market: First-5-innings Over 4.5 at +105 (pinnacle, quoted 1:30 PM CDT) · model expects ~5.1 runs · divergence 5 points — band C. lean, not edge-demonstrated C-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. C cards in this market have won 50.9% of 1,034 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), -0.5 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.

Frozen no lean at 8:15 AM CDT · the market moved away from it · final grade C.

anchor First-5 Over 4.5 +105 → closed +102 · our way

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Day game after a night gameGetaway day (day game, then travel)Deep into a road trip (game 7+)Time-zone spot (playing 2+ zones from home)Starter recently back from injuryHot day (90°+)

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).

SERIES_UNDER The last game in this series finished 4.5 runs under its closing total — 3 runs against a total of 7.5. In 2021–25, the next game went under 54.6% of the time · personal rule, not graded

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
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  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
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  "rung": "l1",
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  "divergence": 0.041412842182870335,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.3452,
    "contribution": -0.13902,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter down 2.1 mph in his last start",
    "share": 0.2565,
    "contribution": 0.10332,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "a_sp_il_return",
     "h_sp_opener"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "90\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.1711,
    "contribution": 0.06893,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "day_game",
     "roof_open"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.1408,
    "contribution": 0.05672,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "a_framing_miss",
     "a_cs30",
     "h_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.0702,
    "contribution": 0.02829,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "a_platoon_miss",
     "h_platoon_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire leans over",
    "share": 0.0161,
    "contribution": 0.00648,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
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  "rung": "l1",
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  "feature_version": 5,
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  "divergence": 0.051024468584292326,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T18:30:59Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.352,
    "contribution": -0.13902,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
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    "share": 0.2616,
    "contribution": 0.10332,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "a_sp_il_return",
     "h_sp_opener"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "93\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.2061,
    "contribution": 0.08141,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "day_game",
     "roof_open"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
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    "share": 0.1065,
    "contribution": 0.04207,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_platoon_share",
     "a_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
    "share": 0.0574,
    "contribution": 0.02267,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "a_framing_miss",
     "a_backup_catcher",
     "a_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire leans over",
    "share": 0.0164,
    "contribution": 0.00648,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.46217774468081146,
  "p_shipped": 0.4899208681870105,
  "model_mu": 7.773349002045477,
  "market_p": 0.48071979434447304,
  "divergence": -0.018542049663661575,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 8.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "90\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.2815,
    "contribution": 0.19157,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "day_game",
     "park_f5_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 5.4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
    "share": 0.2066,
    "contribution": -0.14059,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "a_rs30",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
    "share": 0.1976,
    "contribution": -0.13449,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_getaway"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1747,
    "contribution": -0.11889,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_pitches_3d",
     "h_bp_k_pct30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1396,
    "contribution": -0.09501,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-09T18:30:59Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4692897379619933,
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  "market_p": 0.4974226804123712,
  "divergence": -0.028132942450377896,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 8.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T18:30:59Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "93\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.2936,
    "contribution": 0.20322,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "day_game",
     "park_f5_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 5.4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
    "share": 0.2031,
    "contribution": -0.14059,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "a_rs30",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
    "share": 0.1943,
    "contribution": -0.13449,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_getaway"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1718,
    "contribution": -0.11889,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_pitches_3d",
     "h_bp_k_pct30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1373,
    "contribution": -0.09501,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]