Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-11T13:15:30Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.560205260946736,
"p_shipped": 0.5204045261953516,
"model_mu": 4.043349400079398,
"market_p": 0.5142118863049095,
"divergence": 0.0459933746418264,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-11T13:15:30Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~17 mph net",
"share": 0.3586,
"contribution": 0.17251,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"wind_out_comp",
"roof_open",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.2677,
"contribution": -0.12879,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_rel_miss",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 3.3 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
"share": 0.2105,
"contribution": 0.10128,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0751,
"contribution": 0.03612,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The away team throws out base stealers",
"share": 0.0548,
"contribution": -0.02636,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_cs30",
"h_cs30",
"h_wp_pb30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0333,
"contribution": 0.01604,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_opener",
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-12T01:00:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5849678810522468,
"p_shipped": 0.5492518517261061,
"model_mu": 4.834177712536498,
"market_p": 0.5257731958762887,
"divergence": 0.05919468517595816,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T01:00:36Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~15 mph net",
"share": 0.4108,
"contribution": 0.15823,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"wind_out_comp",
"roof_open",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 3.3 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
"share": 0.2629,
"contribution": 0.10128,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
"share": 0.1677,
"contribution": -0.0646,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_backup_catcher",
"a_cs30",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0821,
"contribution": 0.03162,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "How closely this umpire's calls have matched the zone this past year, against the league",
"share": 0.0764,
"contribution": 0.02944,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-11T13:15:30Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5242113120425879,
"p_shipped": 0.500732883024704,
"model_mu": 7.968682265735606,
"market_p": 0.502577319587629,
"divergence": 0.021633992454958895,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-11T13:15:30Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 3.3 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
"share": 0.3192,
"contribution": 0.17415,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The away team throws out base stealers",
"share": 0.1913,
"contribution": -0.1044,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_cs30",
"h_framing_miss",
"a_cat_framing_prior"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1883,
"contribution": -0.10271,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_pitches_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Heavy travel this week for the home team",
"share": 0.1604,
"contribution": 0.08752,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_miles7d_k",
"a_miles7d_k",
"a_dan"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "The away team's defense leaking extra outs",
"share": 0.1408,
"contribution": 0.07683,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_unearned30",
"h_err30",
"h_unearned30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-12T01:00:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5428976541068832,
"p_shipped": 0.49811757043491633,
"model_mu": 8.689252762371945,
"market_p": 0.5089974293059126,
"divergence": 0.033900224800970546,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 7.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T01:00:36Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 3.3 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
"share": 0.2955,
"contribution": 0.17415,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The away team throws out base stealers",
"share": 0.2515,
"contribution": -0.14822,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_cs30",
"h_backup_catcher",
"h_framing_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1743,
"contribution": -0.10271,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_pitches_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Heavy travel this week for the home team",
"share": 0.1485,
"contribution": 0.08752,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_miles7d_k",
"a_miles7d_k",
"a_dan"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "The away team's defense leaking extra outs",
"share": 0.1303,
"contribution": 0.07683,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_unearned30",
"h_err30",
"h_unearned30"
]
}
]
}
]