Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5593597202650419,
"p_shipped": 0.5205408727134213,
"model_mu": 4.343782565727653,
"market_p": 0.5090439276485788,
"divergence": 0.05031579261646313,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~12 mph net",
"share": 0.3831,
"contribution": 0.18932,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"wind_out_comp",
"roof_open",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.2894,
"contribution": -0.14301,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1148,
"contribution": 0.05672,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"a_cs30",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0878,
"contribution": 0.04337,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_platoon_miss",
"h_platoon_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "How closely this umpire's calls have matched the zone this past year, against the league",
"share": 0.0837,
"contribution": 0.04135,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_width_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0413,
"contribution": -0.02039,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_mix_drift",
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-09T00:30:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5407243998197752,
"p_shipped": 0.5226037698279802,
"model_mu": 4.942619723659009,
"market_p": 0.5090439276485788,
"divergence": 0.031680472171196405,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T00:30:36Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~14 mph net",
"share": 0.4352,
"contribution": 0.18908,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"wind_out_comp",
"roof_open",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.3292,
"contribution": -0.14301,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "How closely this umpire's calls have matched the zone this past year, against the league",
"share": 0.0952,
"contribution": 0.04135,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_width_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0935,
"contribution": 0.0406,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_bb30",
"a_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0469,
"contribution": -0.02039,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_mix_drift",
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5711467407939312,
"p_shipped": 0.5042610193082723,
"model_mu": 7.864016459227191,
"market_p": 0.5064267352185091,
"divergence": 0.06472000557542212,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 7.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 5.4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.2795,
"contribution": -0.14354,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.2254,
"contribution": 0.11574,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_tz2"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~12 mph net",
"share": 0.1726,
"contribution": 0.08861,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"wind_out_comp",
"park_f5_asof",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "lineup",
"phrase": "Recent call-ups in both lineups",
"share": 0.1701,
"contribution": 0.08733,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_recent_debuts",
"a_recent_debuts"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1524,
"contribution": 0.07825,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"a_unearned30",
"h_unearned30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-09T00:30:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5538667024566886,
"p_shipped": 0.5053049884863645,
"model_mu": 8.73773338088962,
"market_p": 0.5167095115681234,
"divergence": 0.03715719088856517,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 7.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T00:30:36Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 5.4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.2831,
"contribution": -0.14354,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.2283,
"contribution": 0.11574,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_tz2"
]
},
{
"family": "lineup",
"phrase": "Recent call-ups in both lineups",
"share": 0.1723,
"contribution": 0.08733,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_recent_debuts",
"a_recent_debuts"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~14 mph net",
"share": 0.1619,
"contribution": 0.08207,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"wind_out_comp",
"park_f5_asof",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1544,
"contribution": 0.07825,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"a_unearned30",
"h_unearned30"
]
}
]
}
]