Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-07T13:15:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5679497329851856,
"p_shipped": 0.4903612916388622,
"model_mu": 4.4072368679812906,
"market_p": 0.4935400516795866,
"divergence": 0.074409681305599,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-07T13:15:14Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~13 mph net",
"share": 0.2793,
"contribution": 0.20218,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"wind_out_comp",
"roof_open",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter strikes out 17.5% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.2063,
"contribution": 0.14937,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_velo_dev",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1824,
"contribution": -0.13203,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1779,
"contribution": -0.12879,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_rel_miss",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.0899,
"contribution": 0.06511,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"a_cs30",
"h_wp_pb30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0642,
"contribution": 0.04647,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_platoon_miss",
"h_platoon_miss"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-07T23:00:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5642859178577191,
"p_shipped": 0.4800774415747408,
"model_mu": 5.6554951295906655,
"market_p": 0.4716494845360826,
"divergence": 0.09263643332163651,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-07T23:00:14Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~11 mph net",
"share": 0.3677,
"contribution": 0.20444,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"wind_out_comp",
"roof_open",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter strikes out 17.5% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.2686,
"contribution": 0.14937,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_velo_dev",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.2375,
"contribution": -0.13203,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.0774,
"contribution": 0.04302,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_edge_cs_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0488,
"contribution": 0.02714,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_platoon_share",
"h_off_k30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-07T13:15:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5061454511929415,
"p_shipped": 0.49997946053473663,
"model_mu": 7.75711821583229,
"market_p": 0.5167095115681234,
"divergence": -0.010564060375181872,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 7.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-07T13:15:14Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.2689,
"contribution": -0.12128,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~13 mph net",
"share": 0.2138,
"contribution": 0.09647,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"wind_out_comp",
"park_f5_asof",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "lineup",
"phrase": "Recent call-ups in both lineups",
"share": 0.1936,
"contribution": 0.08733,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_recent_debuts",
"a_recent_debuts"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1641,
"contribution": 0.07403,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_tz2"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under",
"share": 0.1596,
"contribution": -0.072,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"a_sp_inn1_whiff",
"h_sp_bf_per_start"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-07T23:00:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5210917296123293,
"p_shipped": 0.49261404772213596,
"model_mu": 9.185217730564059,
"market_p": 0.5167095115681234,
"divergence": 0.00438221804420591,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-07T23:00:14Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.2526,
"contribution": -0.12128,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~11 mph net",
"share": 0.2143,
"contribution": 0.1029,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"wind_out_comp",
"park_f5_asof",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
"share": 0.1969,
"contribution": 0.09452,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_rpg_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "lineup",
"phrase": "Recent call-ups in both lineups",
"share": 0.1819,
"contribution": 0.08733,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_recent_debuts",
"a_recent_debuts"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1542,
"contribution": 0.07403,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_tz2"
]
}
]
}
]