SPOTTER.
You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
Game View
first pitch 8:40 PM CDT

Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres

Sat 9/19 · 8:40 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: unknown
FIRST 5 INNINGS
no lean
model 47% over · market 48%
TOTAL
no lean
model 50% under · market 49%
the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are
THE PICTURE — what's driving the 2-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read
The home starter has thrown 132 pitches over 30 days34%
The home team allowing 3.7 runs a game, last 30 — below league averageagainst the over19%
Wind blowing in, ~4 mph netagainst the over5%
Offense profile leans over — mostly the home team2%
WHAT WE COULDN'T SEEpriced into our number — not evidence about this game
No recent umpire zone reading against the league — graded on league-typical assumptionsagainst the over27%
No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team — graded on league-typical assumptions14%
Market: First-5-innings Over 4.5 at +102 (pinnacle, quoted 8:15 AM CDT) · the full picture prices it +111 · model expects ~4.0 runs · divergence 2 points — band none.
SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE
Time-zone spot (playing 2+ zones from home)Starter recently back from injury
Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. Umpire not yet confirmed. Lineups not posted at grade time. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).
Raw grade details (all passes)
[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.49201896692882147,
  "p_shipped": 0.4743927021819998,
  "model_mu": 3.9594171639923768,
  "market_p": 0.4766839378238342,
  "divergence": 0.015335029104987241,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "unknown",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter has thrown 132 pitches over 30 days",
    "share": 0.3363,
    "contribution": 0.16208,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.2672,
    "contribution": -0.12879,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "ump_rel_miss",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 3.7 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
    "share": 0.1852,
    "contribution": -0.08927,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_rs30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.1378,
    "contribution": 0.06641,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "a_framing_miss",
     "h_cs30",
     "a_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Wind blowing in, ~4 mph net",
    "share": 0.0535,
    "contribution": -0.02581,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.02,
    "contribution": 0.00963,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "a_platoon_miss",
     "h_platoon_miss"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.47147765532062214,
  "p_shipped": 0.4984448680949462,
  "model_mu": 7.195345175639226,
  "market_p": 0.5064599483204134,
  "divergence": -0.034982292999791276,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 7.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "unknown",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.3683,
    "contribution": 0.24951,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_tz2",
     "a_miles7d_k"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 3.7 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
    "share": 0.2445,
    "contribution": -0.16568,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30",
     "a_rs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1371,
    "contribution": -0.09291,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "a_platoon_miss",
     "a_off_bb30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The away team throws out base stealers",
    "share": 0.1032,
    "contribution": -0.06992,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_cs30",
     "a_framing_miss",
     "h_framing_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.0876,
    "contribution": -0.05936,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "ump_zone_miss",
     "ump_gate_miss",
     "ump_acc_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "The home team's bullpen rested the last three days",
    "share": 0.0592,
    "contribution": -0.0401,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_apps_3d",
     "a_bp_pitches_3d",
     "h_bp_k_pct30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]