Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.568049150597298,
"p_shipped": 0.5283437930739789,
"model_mu": 3.981347440811904,
"market_p": 0.5271317829457364,
"divergence": 0.04091736765156162,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 3.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.2529,
"contribution": 0.07794,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_bb30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter has thrown 470 pitches over 30 days",
"share": 0.2284,
"contribution": -0.07038,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Behind the plate leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.196,
"contribution": 0.06041,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cs30",
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1772,
"contribution": 0.05462,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_ra30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing in, ~10 mph net",
"share": 0.1455,
"contribution": -0.04484,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"wind_out_comp",
"temp_out",
"day_game"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-06T19:00:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5492303138262842,
"p_shipped": 0.5147160843835294,
"model_mu": 4.451486300854086,
"market_p": 0.5142118863049095,
"divergence": 0.03501842752137463,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 3.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T19:00:14Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter has thrown 470 pitches over 30 days",
"share": 0.2617,
"contribution": -0.07038,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.2276,
"contribution": 0.06121,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_platoon_share"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing in, ~11 mph net",
"share": 0.2049,
"contribution": -0.0551,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"wind_out_comp",
"temp_out",
"day_game"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.2031,
"contribution": 0.05462,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_ra30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.1026,
"contribution": 0.0276,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5114627117879658,
"p_shipped": 0.500066741674521,
"model_mu": 6.844080309262716,
"market_p": 0.5,
"divergence": 0.011462711787965763,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 7.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "push",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "89\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.3394,
"contribution": 0.14675,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"day_game",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2354,
"contribution": -0.10178,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_bb30",
"a_platoon_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.2044,
"contribution": -0.08837,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1594,
"contribution": -0.06893,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"a_unearned30",
"h_unearned30"
]
},
{
"family": "lineup",
"phrase": "Recent call-ups in both lineups",
"share": 0.0614,
"contribution": 0.02656,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_recent_debuts",
"a_recent_debuts"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-06T19:00:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.489794391648141,
"p_shipped": 0.4788874244124955,
"model_mu": 7.706498758494135,
"market_p": 0.4769230769230769,
"divergence": 0.012871314725064087,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 7.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T19:00:14Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "push",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "90\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.3037,
"contribution": 0.14246,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"day_game",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2149,
"contribution": -0.10079,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_bb30",
"a_off_k30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1884,
"contribution": -0.08837,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.147,
"contribution": -0.06893,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"a_unearned30",
"h_unearned30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
"share": 0.146,
"contribution": -0.06848,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_backup_catcher",
"h_framing_miss",
"a_cs30"
]
}
]
}
]