SPOTTER.
You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
Game View
first pitch 8:40 PM CDT

New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres

Sat 9/5 · 8:40 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed
FIRST 5 INNINGS · OVER 4.0
B
B cards like this have won 49% over · market 51%
TOTAL
no lean
model 47% over · market 47%
the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are
THE PICTURE — what's driving the 9-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read
The away starter recently back from injury41%
Offense profile leans over — mostly the home team31%
Team strength & form leans over — mostly the away team19%
Park & environment leans over7%
Backup catcher startingagainst the over1%
Market: First-5-innings Over 4.0 at -114 (pinnacle, quoted 7:30 PM CDT) · model expects ~5.0 runs · divergence 9 points — band B. B-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. B cards in this market have won 49.2% of 620 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), -2.0 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.
Frozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the market moved away from it · final grade B. · new at this pass — the morning pass had no lean.
anchor First-5 Over 4.0 -114 → closed -111 · away
SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE
Time-zone spot (playing 2+ zones from home)Low-scoring umpireStarter recently back from injury
Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).
Raw grade details (all passes)
[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5718839470858645,
  "p_shipped": 0.5120881160068529,
  "model_mu": 4.142642077220858,
  "market_p": 0.5167958656330749,
  "divergence": 0.05508808145278965,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "unknown",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter recently back from injury",
    "share": 0.3143,
    "contribution": 0.14957,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_il_return",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.2706,
    "contribution": -0.12879,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "ump_rel_miss",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1683,
    "contribution": 0.08009,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_bb30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1482,
    "contribution": 0.07054,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Behind the plate leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.0925,
    "contribution": 0.04401,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cs30",
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "a_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
    "share": 0.0062,
    "contribution": 0.00293,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-05T00:30:59Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.6045787390524172,
  "p_shipped": 0.5182382916317995,
  "model_mu": 4.978335922595091,
  "market_p": 0.5142118863049095,
  "divergence": 0.09036685274750766,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T00:30:59Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter recently back from injury",
    "share": 0.4107,
    "contribution": 0.14957,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_il_return",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.3103,
    "contribution": 0.11302,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_platoon_share",
     "a_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1937,
    "contribution": 0.07054,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
    "share": 0.0707,
    "contribution": 0.02574,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
    "share": 0.0147,
    "contribution": -0.00534,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_backup_catcher",
     "h_cs30",
     "a_cs30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4776608128893346,
  "p_shipped": 0.4838307673909672,
  "model_mu": 7.179269137671248,
  "market_p": 0.4743589743589744,
  "divergence": 0.0033018385303602016,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 7.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "unknown",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.2388,
    "contribution": -0.11108,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "a_sp_prev_pitches",
     "a_sp_starts_c10"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot leans over",
    "share": 0.2203,
    "contribution": 0.10248,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_tz2",
     "h_miles7d_k",
     "a_miles7d_k"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2017,
    "contribution": -0.09383,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_bb30",
     "a_platoon_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "Defense leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.146,
    "contribution": -0.06793,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_err30",
     "a_unearned30",
     "h_unearned30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.1276,
    "contribution": -0.05936,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "ump_zone_miss",
     "ump_gate_miss",
     "ump_acc_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.0655,
    "contribution": 0.03049,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_apps_3d",
     "h_bp_k_pct30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-05T00:30:59Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4818958194889671,
  "p_shipped": 0.4734042286164197,
  "model_mu": 8.178791429930401,
  "market_p": 0.46923076923076923,
  "divergence": 0.012665050258197863,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 7.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T00:30:59Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.2699,
    "contribution": -0.11108,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "a_sp_prev_pitches",
     "a_sp_starts_c10"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot leans over",
    "share": 0.249,
    "contribution": 0.10248,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_tz2",
     "h_miles7d_k",
     "a_miles7d_k"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "Defense leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.165,
    "contribution": -0.06793,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_err30",
     "a_unearned30",
     "h_unearned30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1613,
    "contribution": -0.06641,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_bb30",
     "a_off_k30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
    "share": 0.1548,
    "contribution": -0.06371,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_backup_catcher",
     "h_framing_miss",
     "a_cs30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]