SPOTTER.
You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
Game View
first pitch 5:40 PM CDT

Kansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Fri 9/18 · 5:40 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: unknown
TOTAL · UNDER 8.0 RUNS
C
C cards like this have won 52% under · market 51%
FIRST 5 INNINGS
no lean
model 49% under · market 47%
the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are
THE PICTURE — what's driving the 6-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read
Bullpen leans under — mostly the home team37%
The away team deep into a long road trip24%
Starting pitchers leans over — mostly the away teamagainst the under9%
The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games9%
Park & environment leans overagainst the under8%
WHAT WE COULDN'T SEEpriced into our number — not evidence about this game
No umpire zone data — graded on league-typical assumptions13%
Market: Under 8.0 runs at -111 (pinnacle, quoted 8:15 AM CDT) · model expects ~7.5 runs · divergence 6 points — band C. lean, not edge-demonstrated C-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. C cards in this market have won 52.2% of 2,317 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), +1.0 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.
Frozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · final grade comes about 70 minutes before first pitch.
SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE
Deep into a road trip (game 7+)Heavily used bullpen
Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. Umpire not yet confirmed. Lineups not posted at grade time.
Raw grade details (all passes)
[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.526464365837926,
  "p_shipped": 0.5067007864017355,
  "model_mu": 3.9365177953775214,
  "market_p": 0.5348837209302325,
  "divergence": -0.008419355092306513,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "unknown",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.3519,
    "contribution": -0.12879,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "ump_rel_miss",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
    "share": 0.2564,
    "contribution": 0.09384,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "alt_kft",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1524,
    "contribution": 0.05577,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.1263,
    "contribution": 0.04621,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "a_framing_miss",
     "a_cs30",
     "h_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Both teams allowing fewer runs than league average, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1006,
    "contribution": -0.03683,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.0125,
    "contribution": 0.00456,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_bb30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4308219505119198,
  "p_shipped": 0.47841103081249586,
  "model_mu": 7.501911212788769,
  "market_p": 0.49095607235142114,
  "divergence": -0.06013412183950134,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 8.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "unknown",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.3727,
    "contribution": -0.17064,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "h_bp_apps_3d",
     "a_bp_apps_3d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "The away team deep into a long road trip",
    "share": 0.2395,
    "contribution": -0.10968,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_trip7"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.1296,
    "contribution": -0.05936,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "ump_zone_miss",
     "ump_gate_miss",
     "ump_acc_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0948,
    "contribution": 0.04342,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "a_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.0858,
    "contribution": -0.03927,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_bb30",
     "a_platoon_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
    "share": 0.0776,
    "contribution": 0.03552,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "park_f5_asof",
     "alt_kft",
     "roof_open"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]