Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Wed 9/16 · 5:40 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

FIRST 5 INNINGS

no lean

model 51% over · market 51%

TOTAL

no lean

model 47% over · market 48%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 1-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

Team strength & form leans under — mostly the away teamagainst the over39%

Game-time temperature 82°F32%

Both starters strike out 28.3% of batters, adjusted — a higher strikeout rate than averageagainst the over13%

Offense profile leans over — mostly the home team8%

Strike-throwing umpire zoneagainst the over8%

Market: First-5-innings Over 3.5 at -110 (pinnacle, quoted 4:30 PM CDT) · the full picture prices it -105 · model expects ~4.2 runs · divergence 1 point — band none.

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

none detected for this game

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-16T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.510448483991786,
  "p_shipped": 0.5395490398120231,
  "model_mu": 3.5503138658157303,
  "market_p": 0.5335051546391752,
  "divergence": -0.023056670647389255,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 3.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.4172,
    "contribution": -0.19211,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_elo",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Game-time temperature 80\u00b0F",
    "share": 0.332,
    "contribution": 0.15289,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "temp_out",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Both starters strike out 28.3% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
    "share": 0.1439,
    "contribution": -0.06626,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Strike-throwing umpire zone",
    "share": 0.0828,
    "contribution": -0.03814,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.0242,
    "contribution": 0.01112,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_bb30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-16T21:30:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5184036983716008,
  "p_shipped": 0.5110461732142342,
  "model_mu": 4.15476776818914,
  "market_p": 0.5064599483204134,
  "divergence": 0.011943750051187418,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 3.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T21:30:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.3902,
    "contribution": -0.19211,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_elo",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Game-time temperature 82\u00b0F",
    "share": 0.3153,
    "contribution": 0.15527,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "temp_out",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Both starters strike out 28.3% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
    "share": 0.1346,
    "contribution": -0.06626,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.0825,
    "contribution": 0.0406,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_platoon_share"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Strike-throwing umpire zone",
    "share": 0.0775,
    "contribution": -0.03814,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-16T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4742155927669728,
  "p_shipped": 0.4997475288326343,
  "model_mu": 7.154120259868004,
  "market_p": 0.5089974293059126,
  "divergence": -0.03478183653893985,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 7.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.461,
    "contribution": -0.24519,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter an established starter (10+ starts)",
    "share": 0.1761,
    "contribution": 0.09366,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Game-time temperature 80\u00b0F",
    "share": 0.1506,
    "contribution": 0.0801,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "park_f5_asof",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1458,
    "contribution": -0.07755,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_bb30",
     "a_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Light travel this week for the away team",
    "share": 0.0665,
    "contribution": 0.03536,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_miles7d_k"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-16T21:30:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4806617221477581,
  "p_shipped": 0.47238957043695096,
  "model_mu": 8.17396673839835,
  "market_p": 0.47557840616966585,
  "divergence": 0.005083315978092251,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 7.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T21:30:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.4752,
    "contribution": -0.24519,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter an established starter (10+ starts)",
    "share": 0.1815,
    "contribution": 0.09366,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Game-time temperature 82\u00b0F",
    "share": 0.1649,
    "contribution": 0.08508,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "park_f5_asof",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1099,
    "contribution": -0.0567,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_bb30",
     "a_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Light travel this week for the away team",
    "share": 0.0685,
    "contribution": 0.03536,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_miles7d_k"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]