Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-03T13:15:19Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 16,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.5577337817163472,
"p_shipped": 0.5240516720560079,
"model_mu": 4.536576332689066,
"market_p": 0.5207253886010362,
"divergence": 0.03700839311531101,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-03T13:15:19Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "90\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.3594,
"contribution": 0.14203,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"day_game",
"roof_open"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Hitter-friendly umpire zone",
"share": 0.2951,
"contribution": 0.11659,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_k_dev_sd",
"ump_width_asof",
"ump_rpg_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1577,
"contribution": 0.06231,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter likely goes only an inning or two \u2014 relievers cover most of the game. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.1031,
"contribution": -0.04075,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_opener",
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0846,
"contribution": -0.03342,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0001,
"contribution": 6e-05,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_elo",
"a_ra30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-03T15:30:19Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 16,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.501957253447076,
"p_shipped": 0.49161301359857973,
"model_mu": 5.3503752517792424,
"market_p": 0.4935400516795866,
"divergence": 0.00841720176748939,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 5.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-03T15:30:19Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Hitter-friendly umpire zone",
"share": 0.3798,
"contribution": 0.11659,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_k_dev_sd",
"ump_width_asof",
"ump_rpg_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "87\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.3178,
"contribution": 0.09758,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"day_game",
"roof_open"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter likely goes only an inning or two \u2014 relievers cover most of the game. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.1327,
"contribution": -0.04075,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_opener",
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
"share": 0.1069,
"contribution": -0.03282,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"h_backup_catcher",
"a_backup_catcher"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0625,
"contribution": -0.0192,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0002,
"contribution": 6e-05,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_elo",
"a_ra30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-03T13:15:19Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 12,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.5057885829459668,
"p_shipped": 0.47707371014697875,
"model_mu": 8.156170099741688,
"market_p": 0.4935400516795866,
"divergence": 0.012248531266380258,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 9.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-03T13:15:19Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "90\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.2922,
"contribution": 0.21687,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"day_game",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.281,
"contribution": -0.20852,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_k30"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
"share": 0.1921,
"contribution": -0.14255,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_getaway"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter exits early \u2014 bullpen exposure",
"share": 0.1893,
"contribution": 0.14049,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_bf_per_start",
"h_sp_prev_pitches",
"a_sp_opener"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
"share": 0.0455,
"contribution": 0.03375,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_yday_extras",
"a_bp_apps_3d"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-03T15:30:19Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 12,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.4751449031636736,
"p_shipped": 0.47512305251924525,
"model_mu": 9.111421998221324,
"market_p": 0.502577319587629,
"divergence": -0.027432416423955386,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 9.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-03T15:30:19Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2495,
"contribution": -0.19484,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_k30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "87\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.2411,
"contribution": 0.18826,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"day_game",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
"share": 0.1826,
"contribution": -0.14255,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_getaway"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter exits early \u2014 bullpen exposure",
"share": 0.1799,
"contribution": 0.14049,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_bf_per_start",
"h_sp_prev_pitches",
"a_sp_opener"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
"share": 0.1036,
"contribution": -0.08092,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"h_backup_catcher",
"h_framing_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
"share": 0.0432,
"contribution": 0.03375,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_yday_extras",
"a_bp_apps_3d"
]
}
]
}
]