Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4896296232979705,
"p_shipped": 0.49095281262471996,
"model_mu": 4.127961320445416,
"market_p": 0.5012919896640827,
"divergence": -0.011662366366112231,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Game-time temperature 80\u00b0F",
"share": 0.2928,
"contribution": 0.15033,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"temp_out",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.264,
"contribution": -0.13556,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.2509,
"contribution": -0.12879,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_rel_miss",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.146,
"contribution": 0.07495,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_elo",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter strikes out 18.2% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.0424,
"contribution": 0.02177,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_mix_drift",
"h_sp_tto_decay"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
"share": 0.0039,
"contribution": 0.002,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_cs30",
"h_cs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-04T21:30:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5463292382427057,
"p_shipped": 0.5238694441025339,
"model_mu": 5.230712145957813,
"market_p": 0.5231958762886597,
"divergence": 0.023133361954046028,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T21:30:59Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.2691,
"contribution": -0.12351,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Game-time temperature 78\u00b0F",
"share": 0.2515,
"contribution": 0.11547,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"temp_out",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.2152,
"contribution": 0.09879,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1633,
"contribution": 0.07495,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_elo",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
"share": 0.0535,
"contribution": 0.02455,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"a_backup_catcher",
"h_cat_framing_prior"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter strikes out 18.2% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.0474,
"contribution": 0.02177,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_mix_drift",
"h_sp_tto_decay"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4651637570539439,
"p_shipped": 0.47659768597937685,
"model_mu": 7.857747712276389,
"market_p": 0.4832904884318767,
"divergence": -0.018126731377932803,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.4364,
"contribution": -0.4053,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.2243,
"contribution": 0.2083,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_tz2",
"h_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1878,
"contribution": 0.17445,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Game-time temperature 80\u00b0F",
"share": 0.0802,
"contribution": 0.07445,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"park_f5_asof",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0713,
"contribution": -0.0662,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_pitches_3d"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-04T21:30:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5082163110169511,
"p_shipped": 0.5028251690982976,
"model_mu": 8.9532625649893,
"market_p": 0.5244215938303342,
"divergence": -0.01620528281338307,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T21:30:59Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.4132,
"contribution": -0.3949,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.2179,
"contribution": 0.2083,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_tz2",
"h_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1825,
"contribution": 0.17445,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
"share": 0.1171,
"contribution": 0.11195,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_width_asof",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0693,
"contribution": -0.0662,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_pitches_3d"
]
}
]
}
]