Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 16,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.5872865047024741,
"p_shipped": 0.48797171058975797,
"model_mu": 4.7916852600354245,
"market_p": 0.4780361757105944,
"divergence": 0.1092503289918797,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "90\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.5172,
"contribution": 0.22968,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1791,
"contribution": 0.07953,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone runs narrower than most \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.1047,
"contribution": 0.04651,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_asof",
"ump_k_dev_sd",
"ump_rpg_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter down 1.7 mph in his last start",
"share": 0.0915,
"contribution": 0.04064,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0861,
"contribution": -0.03825,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0214,
"contribution": 0.00951,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_elo",
"a_ra30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-02T21:30:30Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 16,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.574068444118877,
"p_shipped": 0.5075349339132823,
"model_mu": 5.399445416030954,
"market_p": 0.5,
"divergence": 0.07406844411887703,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T21:30:30Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "89\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.5977,
"contribution": 0.23468,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone runs narrower than most \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.1184,
"contribution": 0.04651,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_asof",
"ump_k_dev_sd",
"ump_rpg_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter down 1.7 mph in his last start",
"share": 0.1035,
"contribution": 0.04064,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.101,
"contribution": -0.03966,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
"share": 0.0552,
"contribution": 0.02165,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"h_backup_catcher",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0242,
"contribution": 0.00951,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_elo",
"a_ra30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 12,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.5213895545432171,
"p_shipped": 0.49193133124166905,
"model_mu": 8.295660004050752,
"market_p": 0.493573264781491,
"divergence": 0.02781628976172612,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.3219,
"contribution": -0.22242,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_k30"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The home team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
"share": 0.2206,
"contribution": 0.15248,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_b2b",
"a_bp_pitches_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "90\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.1938,
"contribution": 0.13393,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"alt_kft",
"park_f5_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1558,
"contribution": 0.10769,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_tz2"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter walks 11.4% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.1079,
"contribution": -0.07454,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-02T21:30:30Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 12,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.4961883812913338,
"p_shipped": 0.4738037735794205,
"model_mu": 9.830466412843426,
"market_p": 0.47557840616966585,
"divergence": 0.020609975121667956,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 9.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T21:30:30Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "push",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.3129,
"contribution": -0.21427,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_k30"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The home team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
"share": 0.2226,
"contribution": 0.15248,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_b2b",
"a_bp_pitches_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "89\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.1984,
"contribution": 0.1359,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"alt_kft",
"park_f5_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1572,
"contribution": 0.10769,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_tz2"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter walks 11.4% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.1088,
"contribution": -0.07454,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
]
}
]
}
]