Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies

Thu 9/10 · 12:05 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

TOTAL · UNDER 8.5 RUNS

B cards like this have won 52% under · market 50% · stake 0.5u

FIRST 5 INNINGS · UNDER 4.5

C cards like this have won 51% under · market 51%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 11-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

87°F — heat carries the ballagainst the under23%

Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team — day game, then travel22%

The home starter strikes out 28.6% of batters, adjusted — a higher strikeout rate than average21%

Backup catcher starting21%

Bullpen leans overagainst the under12%

Market: Under 8.5 runs at -108 (pinnacle, quoted 11:03 AM CDT) · model expects ~8.1 runs · divergence 11 points — band B. B-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. B cards in this market have won 52.2% of 1,393 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), +1.2 points over break-even at the close. Plan cell · suggested stake 0.5u of the flat unit — the stake follows the cell, not this card's number.

FIRST 5Frozen no lean at 8:15 AM CDT · the market moved away from it · final grade C.

TOTALFrozen B at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held. · both passes leaned this way.

FIRST 5anchor First-5 Under 4.5 -111 → closed -110 · away

TOTALanchor Under 8.5 runs -108 → closed -106 · away

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Catcher rest spotVeteran rest spotDay game after a night gameGetaway day (day game, then travel)

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip.

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-10T13:15:59Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.45562322055933346,
  "p_shipped": 0.4678940611673007,
  "model_mu": 4.051832717035643,
  "market_p": 0.4883720930232558,
  "divergence": -0.03274887246392233,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-10T13:15:59Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter strikes out 28.6% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
    "share": 0.5068,
    "contribution": -0.22949,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_tto_decay"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "87\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.1972,
    "contribution": 0.08928,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "day_game",
     "roof_open"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
    "share": 0.1523,
    "contribution": -0.06895,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0802,
    "contribution": 0.03632,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "h_ra30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
    "share": 0.0636,
    "contribution": 0.02878,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "a_cs30",
     "h_cs30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-10T16:03:30Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.43302260598314424,
  "p_shipped": 0.4691586342481447,
  "model_mu": 4.606224272252849,
  "market_p": 0.49095607235142114,
  "divergence": -0.0579334663682769,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-10T16:03:30Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter strikes out 28.6% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
    "share": 0.4551,
    "contribution": -0.22949,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_tto_decay"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
    "share": 0.1701,
    "contribution": -0.08578,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_backup_catcher",
     "a_backup_catcher",
     "a_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "87\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.166,
    "contribution": 0.08368,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "day_game",
     "roof_open"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
    "share": 0.1367,
    "contribution": -0.06895,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.072,
    "contribution": 0.03632,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "h_ra30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-10T13:15:59Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.40367818828986257,
  "p_shipped": 0.49820087927969736,
  "model_mu": 7.152994337416208,
  "market_p": 0.4961439588688946,
  "divergence": -0.09246577057903205,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 8.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-10T13:15:59Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "87\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.2617,
    "contribution": 0.15645,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "day_game",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
    "share": 0.2482,
    "contribution": -0.14838,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_getaway"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter strikes out 28.6% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
    "share": 0.2365,
    "contribution": -0.14141,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans over",
    "share": 0.1342,
    "contribution": 0.08022,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_b2b",
     "h_bp_apps_3d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1194,
    "contribution": -0.0714,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_k30",
     "h_off_bb30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-10T16:03:30Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.3818123411940777,
  "p_shipped": 0.4908359477391589,
  "model_mu": 8.124594161227712,
  "market_p": 0.4961439588688946,
  "divergence": -0.11433161767481692,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 8.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-10T16:03:30Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "87\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.232,
    "contribution": 0.15435,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "day_game",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
    "share": 0.2231,
    "contribution": -0.14838,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_getaway"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter strikes out 28.6% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
    "share": 0.2126,
    "contribution": -0.14141,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
    "share": 0.2117,
    "contribution": -0.14084,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_backup_catcher",
     "h_framing_miss",
     "a_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans over",
    "share": 0.1206,
    "contribution": 0.08022,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_b2b",
     "h_bp_apps_3d"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]