Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5047772285482054,
"p_shipped": 0.48220276895124353,
"model_mu": 4.222514747168016,
"market_p": 0.5090439276485788,
"divergence": -0.004266699100373361,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.3259,
"contribution": -0.12879,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_rel_miss",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Game-time temperature 79\u00b0F",
"share": 0.2906,
"contribution": 0.11483,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"temp_out",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1371,
"contribution": 0.05416,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30",
"h_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1168,
"contribution": -0.04615,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_k30",
"h_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
"share": 0.0807,
"contribution": 0.0319,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_cs30",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0489,
"contribution": 0.01934,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_mix_drift"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-08T21:30:42Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5478621762981359,
"p_shipped": 0.5007313445769686,
"model_mu": 5.1476305303714955,
"market_p": 0.5038759689922481,
"divergence": 0.04398620730588787,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-08T21:30:42Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~5 mph net",
"share": 0.5129,
"contribution": 0.14686,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1891,
"contribution": 0.05416,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30",
"h_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1191,
"contribution": -0.03409,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_k30",
"h_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
"share": 0.1114,
"contribution": 0.0319,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_cs30",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0675,
"contribution": 0.01934,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_mix_drift"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5180286598730097,
"p_shipped": 0.5104437599465439,
"model_mu": 8.154789028116367,
"market_p": 0.5218508997429305,
"divergence": -0.003822239869920807,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.335,
"contribution": 0.20563,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"h_miles7d_k",
"a_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter an established starter (10+ starts)",
"share": 0.2268,
"contribution": 0.13926,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2211,
"contribution": -0.13576,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_k30"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "The away team's defense sure-handed",
"share": 0.1193,
"contribution": -0.07324,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_unearned30",
"a_err30",
"h_err30"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0978,
"contribution": 0.06001,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_pitches_3d"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-08T21:30:42Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5386741326638179,
"p_shipped": 0.5027719231804366,
"model_mu": 9.237903754716775,
"market_p": 0.5218508997429305,
"divergence": 0.016823232920887388,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-08T21:30:42Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.3407,
"contribution": 0.20563,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"h_miles7d_k",
"a_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter an established starter (10+ starts)",
"share": 0.2308,
"contribution": 0.13926,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2077,
"contribution": -0.12536,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_k30"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "The away team's defense sure-handed",
"share": 0.1214,
"contribution": -0.07324,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_unearned30",
"a_err30",
"h_err30"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0994,
"contribution": 0.06001,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_pitches_3d"
]
}
]
}
]