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first pitch 12:05 PM CDT
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Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies

Mon 9/7 · 12:05 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed
FIRST 5 INNINGS · OVER 4.5
C
C cards like this have won 51% over · market 47%
TOTAL
no lean
model 48% over · market 49%
the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are
THE PICTURE — what's driving the 6-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read
Team strength & form leans over — mostly the away team45%
The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches21%
The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 gamesagainst the over12%
Day gameagainst the over11%
Starting pitchers leans over — mostly the away team11%
Market: First-5-innings Over 4.5 at +106 (pinnacle, quoted 11:00 AM CDT) · model expects ~5.3 runs · divergence 6 points — band C. lean, not edge-demonstrated C-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. C cards in this market have won 50.9% of 1,034 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), -0.5 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.
Frozen no lean at 8:15 AM CDT · the market moved away from it · final grade C.
anchor First-5 Over 4.5 +106 → closed First-5 Over 4.0 -114 · away
SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE
Getaway day (day game, then travel)High-scoring umpireHeavy recent starter workload
Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).
Raw grade details (all passes)
[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-07T13:15:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.524079274582585,
  "p_shipped": 0.4645137267479593,
  "model_mu": 4.468919975040669,
  "market_p": 0.47680412371134023,
  "divergence": 0.04727515087124473,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-07T13:15:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.4022,
    "contribution": 0.13903,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
    "share": 0.1846,
    "contribution": 0.0638,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "a_cs30",
     "a_cat_framing_prior"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Day game",
    "share": 0.1681,
    "contribution": -0.0581,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1501,
    "contribution": -0.05188,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_k30",
     "h_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0951,
    "contribution": 0.03289,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-07T16:00:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5334137999355159,
  "p_shipped": 0.4563841838312449,
  "model_mu": 5.252171611564449,
  "market_p": 0.4690721649484536,
  "divergence": 0.06434163498706225,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-07T16:00:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.4511,
    "contribution": 0.13903,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
    "share": 0.207,
    "contribution": 0.0638,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "a_cs30",
     "a_cat_framing_prior"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1208,
    "contribution": -0.03723,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_k30",
     "h_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Day game",
    "share": 0.1145,
    "contribution": -0.03529,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1067,
    "contribution": 0.03289,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-07T13:15:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4910324374546573,
  "p_shipped": 0.4878732584342072,
  "model_mu": 7.534781884754407,
  "market_p": 0.4910025706940874,
  "divergence": 2.9866760569874362e-05,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 8.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-07T13:15:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter threw 26 pitches last start",
    "share": 0.3049,
    "contribution": -0.13973,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_prev_pitches",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2623,
    "contribution": -0.12022,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_k30",
     "h_off_bb30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 3.4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
    "share": 0.1934,
    "contribution": 0.08862,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "a_rs30",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Day game",
    "share": 0.1354,
    "contribution": 0.06207,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The away team gives up stolen bases",
    "share": 0.1041,
    "contribution": 0.04769,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_cs30",
     "a_wp_pb30",
     "a_cat_framing_prior"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-07T16:00:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4988558312337035,
  "p_shipped": 0.4774404427653108,
  "model_mu": 8.60649468108127,
  "market_p": 0.4858611825192801,
  "divergence": 0.012994648714423351,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 8.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-07T16:00:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter threw 26 pitches last start",
    "share": 0.3044,
    "contribution": -0.13973,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_prev_pitches",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2285,
    "contribution": -0.1049,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_k30",
     "h_off_bb30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 3.4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
    "share": 0.1931,
    "contribution": 0.08862,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "a_rs30",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Day game",
    "share": 0.17,
    "contribution": 0.07804,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "temp_out",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The away team gives up stolen bases",
    "share": 0.1039,
    "contribution": 0.04769,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_cs30",
     "a_wp_pb30",
     "a_cat_framing_prior"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]