Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.49680626381872417,
"p_shipped": 0.5270336743314185,
"model_mu": 4.268463981157271,
"market_p": 0.5321336760925449,
"divergence": -0.035327412273820746,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter has thrown 481 pitches over 30 days",
"share": 0.4421,
"contribution": -0.28271,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~8 mph net",
"share": 0.3322,
"contribution": 0.21244,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1031,
"contribution": -0.06592,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_k30",
"h_off_bb30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0728,
"contribution": 0.04658,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30",
"h_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
"share": 0.0497,
"contribution": 0.03178,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_cs30",
"h_cs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-09T21:30:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5038126166671338,
"p_shipped": 0.516293796571934,
"model_mu": 4.985801531115542,
"market_p": 0.5219638242894057,
"divergence": -0.018151207622271848,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T21:30:59Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter has thrown 481 pitches over 30 days",
"share": 0.4442,
"contribution": -0.28271,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~9 mph net",
"share": 0.3535,
"contribution": 0.22495,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"wind_out_comp",
"roof_open",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0792,
"contribution": -0.05041,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_k30",
"h_off_bb30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0732,
"contribution": 0.04658,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30",
"h_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
"share": 0.0499,
"contribution": 0.03178,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_cs30",
"h_cs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.46676157499040094,
"p_shipped": 0.5089602525519209,
"model_mu": 7.437931685933042,
"market_p": 0.5167095115681234,
"divergence": -0.04994793657772245,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2544,
"contribution": -0.10879,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_k30",
"a_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter walks 11.6% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.2537,
"contribution": -0.10849,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_bf_per_start",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Game-time temperature 81\u00b0F",
"share": 0.1892,
"contribution": 0.0809,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"wind_out_comp",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Heavy travel this week for the home team",
"share": 0.1518,
"contribution": 0.0649,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"h_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "The away team's defense sure-handed",
"share": 0.1509,
"contribution": -0.0645,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_unearned30",
"h_err30",
"a_err30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-09T21:30:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.47290614313250035,
"p_shipped": 0.5015952563920385,
"model_mu": 8.474402299465174,
"market_p": 0.5167095115681234,
"divergence": -0.04380336843562305,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T21:30:59Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter walks 11.6% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.2594,
"contribution": -0.10849,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_bf_per_start",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2195,
"contribution": -0.09182,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_k30",
"a_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Game-time temperature 81\u00b0F",
"share": 0.2118,
"contribution": 0.08859,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"wind_out_comp",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Heavy travel this week for the home team",
"share": 0.1552,
"contribution": 0.0649,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"h_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "The away team's defense sure-handed",
"share": 0.1542,
"contribution": -0.0645,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_unearned30",
"h_err30",
"a_err30"
]
}
]
}
]