Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4666997740622773,
"p_shipped": 0.4611329435414901,
"model_mu": 4.077839372265559,
"market_p": 0.4857881136950904,
"divergence": -0.01908833963281309,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.2994,
"contribution": 0.14259,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter has thrown 490 pitches over 30 days",
"share": 0.2257,
"contribution": -0.10746,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.1964,
"contribution": -0.09353,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.1513,
"contribution": -0.07206,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
"share": 0.1272,
"contribution": 0.06056,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_cs30",
"a_cat_framing_prior"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-06T16:00:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4444739928836571,
"p_shipped": 0.44487826087883053,
"model_mu": 4.633513580779167,
"market_p": 0.4716494845360826,
"divergence": -0.0271754916524255,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T16:00:14Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.3002,
"contribution": 0.14259,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter has thrown 490 pitches over 30 days",
"share": 0.2262,
"contribution": -0.10746,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.1982,
"contribution": -0.09416,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.1517,
"contribution": -0.07206,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
"share": 0.1237,
"contribution": -0.05878,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_backup_catcher",
"a_backup_catcher",
"a_cs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5254731350857963,
"p_shipped": 0.510499815527196,
"model_mu": 7.677853185581516,
"market_p": 0.5167095115681234,
"divergence": 0.008763623517672903,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.3466,
"contribution": -0.13567,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_k30",
"h_off_bb30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Both teams allowing fewer runs than league average, last 30 games. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
"share": 0.2389,
"contribution": 0.09351,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.2083,
"contribution": 0.08153,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_pitches_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.1037,
"contribution": 0.04059,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"wind_out_comp",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The away team gives up stolen bases",
"share": 0.1026,
"contribution": 0.04016,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_cs30",
"a_wp_pb30",
"a_cat_framing_prior"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-06T16:00:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5052903347322623,
"p_shipped": 0.49467098427650186,
"model_mu": 8.703726506296709,
"market_p": 0.502577319587629,
"divergence": 0.0027130151446332906,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T16:00:14Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2887,
"contribution": -0.11318,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_k30",
"h_off_bb30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Both teams allowing fewer runs than league average, last 30 games. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
"share": 0.2385,
"contribution": 0.09351,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.208,
"contribution": 0.08153,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_pitches_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
"share": 0.1612,
"contribution": -0.06321,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_backup_catcher",
"h_framing_miss",
"a_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.1037,
"contribution": 0.04065,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"wind_out_comp",
"alt_kft"
]
}
]
}
]