Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5817948403912522,
"p_shipped": 0.4629491649274654,
"model_mu": 3.9839320575120003,
"market_p": 0.4652956298200514,
"divergence": 0.11649921057120077,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 3.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.3014,
"contribution": -0.12879,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_rel_miss",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.2682,
"contribution": 0.11464,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Game-time temperature 78\u00b0F",
"share": 0.2019,
"contribution": 0.08629,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"temp_out",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
"share": 0.1437,
"contribution": 0.06142,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_cs30",
"a_cat_framing_prior"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0752,
"contribution": 0.03213,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_prev_heavy",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0096,
"contribution": -0.0041,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_k30",
"h_off_xbh30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-04T21:30:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.6074752901795373,
"p_shipped": 0.5368800339831209,
"model_mu": 4.490471235005109,
"market_p": 0.5257731958762887,
"divergence": 0.0817020943032486,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 3.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T21:30:59Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.341,
"contribution": 0.11464,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Game-time temperature 80\u00b0F",
"share": 0.2526,
"contribution": 0.08494,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"temp_out",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.2384,
"contribution": -0.08014,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0956,
"contribution": 0.03213,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_prev_heavy",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
"share": 0.0725,
"contribution": 0.02436,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_backup_catcher",
"a_cs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5445770542139997,
"p_shipped": 0.48402589110292166,
"model_mu": 7.294080419510336,
"market_p": 0.4717948717948718,
"divergence": 0.07278218241912793,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 7.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "push",
"factors": [
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.2506,
"contribution": 0.10855,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_b2b"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2109,
"contribution": -0.09136,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_k30",
"h_off_bb30"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Heavy travel this week for the home team",
"share": 0.1697,
"contribution": 0.07352,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_miles7d_k",
"a_miles7d_k",
"a_dan"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Both teams allowing fewer runs than league average, last 30 games. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
"share": 0.1398,
"contribution": 0.06058,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.137,
"contribution": -0.05936,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_zone_miss",
"ump_gate_miss",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The away team gives up stolen bases",
"share": 0.0919,
"contribution": 0.03981,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_cs30",
"a_wp_pb30",
"a_cat_framing_prior"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-04T21:30:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.557047078531451,
"p_shipped": 0.4837204307608601,
"model_mu": 8.071688219099846,
"market_p": 0.48205128205128206,
"divergence": 0.07499579648016891,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 7.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T21:30:59Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "push",
"factors": [
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.3015,
"contribution": 0.10855,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_b2b"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2311,
"contribution": -0.0832,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_k30",
"h_off_bb30"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Heavy travel this week for the home team",
"share": 0.2042,
"contribution": 0.07352,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_miles7d_k",
"a_miles7d_k",
"a_dan"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Both teams allowing fewer runs than league average, last 30 games. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
"share": 0.1682,
"contribution": 0.06058,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "lineup",
"phrase": "No recent call-ups in either lineup",
"share": 0.095,
"contribution": -0.03421,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_recent_debuts",
"a_recent_debuts"
]
}
]
}
]