Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-05T13:15:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5133433632347236,
"p_shipped": 0.47933405904854304,
"model_mu": 4.644309463038214,
"market_p": 0.4922279792746114,
"divergence": 0.0211153839601122,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T13:15:59Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter has thrown 509 pitches over 30 days",
"share": 0.3483,
"contribution": -0.14218,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.3334,
"contribution": 0.1361,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
"share": 0.1505,
"contribution": 0.06142,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_cs30",
"a_cat_framing_prior"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.0989,
"contribution": 0.04036,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0689,
"contribution": -0.02814,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_k30",
"h_off_xbh30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-05T21:00:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.510528834365108,
"p_shipped": 0.4698332988412485,
"model_mu": 5.367611248050545,
"market_p": 0.4832041343669251,
"divergence": 0.027324699998182878,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T21:00:14Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter has thrown 509 pitches over 30 days",
"share": 0.3533,
"contribution": -0.14218,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.3382,
"contribution": 0.1361,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
"share": 0.1526,
"contribution": 0.06142,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_cs30",
"a_cat_framing_prior"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.0792,
"contribution": 0.03186,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0768,
"contribution": -0.03091,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_k30",
"h_off_xbh30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-05T13:15:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5141922515681627,
"p_shipped": 0.4856164163038074,
"model_mu": 8.322635661675147,
"market_p": 0.4832904884318767,
"divergence": 0.03090176313628601,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T13:15:59Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter strikes out 28.2% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.2663,
"contribution": -0.13917,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_starts_c10"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2215,
"contribution": -0.11576,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_k30",
"h_off_bb30"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Heavy travel this week for the home team",
"share": 0.1994,
"contribution": 0.10421,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"h_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Both teams allowing fewer runs than league average, last 30 games. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
"share": 0.1697,
"contribution": 0.08867,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.143,
"contribution": 0.07472,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_apps_3d"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-05T21:00:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5211268523695142,
"p_shipped": 0.49364183911601706,
"model_mu": 8.98924342428904,
"market_p": 0.5089974293059126,
"divergence": 0.012129423063601541,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T21:00:14Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter strikes out 28.2% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.2688,
"contribution": -0.13917,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_starts_c10"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2142,
"contribution": -0.11089,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_k30",
"h_off_bb30"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Heavy travel this week for the home team",
"share": 0.2013,
"contribution": 0.10421,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"h_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Both teams allowing fewer runs than league average, last 30 games. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
"share": 0.1713,
"contribution": 0.08867,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1443,
"contribution": 0.07472,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_apps_3d"
]
}
]
}
]