Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.48273023115876906,
"p_shipped": 0.5015007837505853,
"model_mu": 3.801605704600261,
"market_p": 0.5038759689922481,
"divergence": -0.021145737833479006,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Both starters strike out 30.2% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.3946,
"contribution": -0.30564,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.208,
"contribution": 0.16107,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_edge_cs_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over",
"share": 0.1833,
"contribution": 0.14194,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_hr30",
"a_platoon_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1311,
"contribution": -0.1015,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30",
"h_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
"share": 0.0831,
"contribution": -0.06434,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30",
"a_cat_framing_prior"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-13T16:30:49Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4691568489680735,
"p_shipped": 0.505969387508719,
"model_mu": 4.293359146758196,
"market_p": 0.5090439276485788,
"divergence": -0.03988707868050523,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T16:30:49Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Both starters strike out 30.2% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.3873,
"contribution": -0.30564,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.2041,
"contribution": 0.16107,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_edge_cs_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over",
"share": 0.1984,
"contribution": 0.1566,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1286,
"contribution": -0.1015,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30",
"h_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
"share": 0.0815,
"contribution": -0.06434,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30",
"a_cat_framing_prior"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4922632731645695,
"p_shipped": 0.5019858385566645,
"model_mu": 7.241455722713334,
"market_p": 0.5192802056555269,
"divergence": -0.02701693249095738,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 7.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter strikes out 30.2% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.2557,
"contribution": -0.21184,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
"share": 0.2487,
"contribution": 0.20612,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_width_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3.4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.2204,
"contribution": -0.18259,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"h_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.1682,
"contribution": 0.1394,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"park_f5_asof",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.107,
"contribution": 0.08868,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"a_platoon_miss"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-13T16:30:49Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.47870249213568183,
"p_shipped": 0.48351603267503246,
"model_mu": 8.473475917532188,
"market_p": 0.48843187660668386,
"divergence": -0.009729384471002023,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T16:30:49Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter strikes out 30.2% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.264,
"contribution": -0.21184,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
"share": 0.2569,
"contribution": 0.20612,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_width_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3.4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.2276,
"contribution": -0.18259,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"h_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1296,
"contribution": 0.10401,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_k30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.1219,
"contribution": 0.09777,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"park_f5_asof",
"alt_kft"
]
}
]
}
]