Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4907631582065322,
"p_shipped": 0.518815551989159,
"model_mu": 4.589116415972827,
"market_p": 0.5142118863049095,
"divergence": -0.023448728098377336,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 5.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Game-time temperature 82\u00b0F",
"share": 0.3285,
"contribution": 0.14603,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"temp_out",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3.1 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.3131,
"contribution": -0.13918,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_elo",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter strikes out 15.2% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.2614,
"contribution": 0.11623,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"h_sp_tto_decay"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
"share": 0.0712,
"contribution": -0.03166,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_framing_miss",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0258,
"contribution": -0.01145,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_k30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-09T22:00:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.48366430884666944,
"p_shipped": 0.5319247878838184,
"model_mu": 5.232852861158484,
"market_p": 0.5309278350515463,
"divergence": -0.04726352620487684,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 5.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T22:00:59Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3.1 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.3509,
"contribution": -0.13918,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_elo",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter strikes out 15.2% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.293,
"contribution": 0.11623,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"h_sp_tto_decay"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Game-time temperature 79\u00b0F",
"share": 0.2596,
"contribution": 0.10296,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"temp_out",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
"share": 0.0798,
"contribution": -0.03166,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_framing_miss",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.0167,
"contribution": 0.00663,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_acc_rel"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.48313106688088936,
"p_shipped": 0.4964216193437814,
"model_mu": 8.144260348254097,
"market_p": 0.5,
"divergence": -0.01686893311911064,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 9.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3.1 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.3005,
"contribution": -0.19857,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_ra30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.2459,
"contribution": 0.16246,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_tz2"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2303,
"contribution": -0.15216,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_k30",
"h_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Game-time temperature 82\u00b0F",
"share": 0.1244,
"contribution": 0.08217,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"park_f5_asof",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.099,
"contribution": 0.06539,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_b2b"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-09T22:00:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.47308114706328014,
"p_shipped": 0.485352813245581,
"model_mu": 9.574961145541801,
"market_p": 0.48711340206185555,
"divergence": -0.01403225499857541,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 9.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T22:00:59Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3.1 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.3214,
"contribution": -0.19857,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_ra30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.263,
"contribution": 0.16246,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_tz2"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2215,
"contribution": -0.13683,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_k30",
"h_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1058,
"contribution": 0.06539,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_b2b"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.0883,
"contribution": 0.05455,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"park_f5_asof",
"temp_out",
"alt_kft"
]
}
]
}
]