Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-11T13:15:30Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4921775109552408,
"p_shipped": 0.4957410144410229,
"model_mu": 3.891388879516542,
"market_p": 0.5064599483204134,
"divergence": -0.014282437365172596,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-11T13:15:30Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.2727,
"contribution": -0.12879,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_rel_miss",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Game-time temperature 76\u00b0F",
"share": 0.1965,
"contribution": 0.09279,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"temp_out",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3.1 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.1938,
"contribution": -0.09154,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"h_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.171,
"contribution": 0.08075,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_hr30",
"h_off_k30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
"share": 0.142,
"contribution": -0.06708,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30",
"a_cat_framing_prior"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter threw 105+ pitches last start",
"share": 0.0241,
"contribution": 0.01138,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_prev_heavy",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-11T22:00:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.516562885668816,
"p_shipped": 0.5024388609944197,
"model_mu": 4.677488836257826,
"market_p": 0.5038759689922481,
"divergence": 0.01268691667656796,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-11T22:00:36Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.2441,
"contribution": 0.09879,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"temp_out",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.2357,
"contribution": 0.0954,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_hr30",
"h_off_k30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3.1 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.2262,
"contribution": -0.09154,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"h_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
"share": 0.1658,
"contribution": -0.06708,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30",
"a_cat_framing_prior"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.1282,
"contribution": -0.05187,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-11T13:15:30Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.43674105725581785,
"p_shipped": 0.5122034454634532,
"model_mu": 7.316013296674673,
"market_p": 0.5141388174807198,
"divergence": -0.07739776022490191,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-11T13:15:30Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3.1 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.2758,
"contribution": -0.19745,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.2597,
"contribution": 0.18588,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"h_miles7d_k",
"a_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter walks 11.4% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.2207,
"contribution": -0.15796,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans under",
"share": 0.0995,
"contribution": -0.07121,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_b2b",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_apps_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.0829,
"contribution": -0.05936,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_zone_miss",
"ump_gate_miss",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.0614,
"contribution": 0.04397,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"park_f5_asof",
"alt_kft",
"temp_out"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-11T22:00:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.44990629211696886,
"p_shipped": 0.4948299164887427,
"model_mu": 8.269178382925318,
"market_p": 0.4974226804123712,
"divergence": -0.047516388295402334,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-11T22:00:36Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3.1 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.2996,
"contribution": -0.19745,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.282,
"contribution": 0.18588,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"h_miles7d_k",
"a_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter walks 11.4% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.2396,
"contribution": -0.15796,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans under",
"share": 0.108,
"contribution": -0.07121,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_b2b",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_apps_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.0708,
"contribution": 0.04665,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"park_f5_asof",
"alt_kft",
"temp_out"
]
}
]
}
]