Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-10T13:15:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5135975488529703,
"p_shipped": 0.4855325939109833,
"model_mu": 4.65288267894697,
"market_p": 0.47680412371134023,
"divergence": 0.03679342514163003,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 5.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-10T13:15:59Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "push",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter strikes out 17.3% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.3494,
"contribution": 0.22735,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_il_return"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Game-time temperature 84\u00b0F",
"share": 0.2749,
"contribution": 0.17886,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"temp_out",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3.1 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.2265,
"contribution": -0.14737,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_elo",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.1006,
"contribution": -0.06544,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel",
"ump_acc_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
"share": 0.0487,
"contribution": -0.03166,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_framing_miss",
"h_cs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-10T22:00:30Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.526451737735128,
"p_shipped": 0.5004746107780577,
"model_mu": 5.139964751812945,
"market_p": 0.49095607235142114,
"divergence": 0.035495665383706854,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-10T22:00:30Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter strikes out 17.3% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.3079,
"contribution": 0.22735,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_il_return"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Game-time temperature 83\u00b0F",
"share": 0.2489,
"contribution": 0.18379,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"temp_out",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3.1 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.1996,
"contribution": -0.14737,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_elo",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
"share": 0.1551,
"contribution": -0.11453,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_backup_catcher",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.0886,
"contribution": -0.06544,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel",
"ump_acc_rel"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-10T13:15:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.48423937686216056,
"p_shipped": 0.4911445407999792,
"model_mu": 7.910671502895227,
"market_p": 0.48071979434447304,
"divergence": 0.003519582517687525,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 9.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-10T13:15:59Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3.1 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.3796,
"contribution": -0.21376,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_ra30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Game-time temperature 84\u00b0F",
"share": 0.1836,
"contribution": 0.10339,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"park_f5_asof",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team striking out more than league average, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1696,
"contribution": -0.0955,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_k30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"a_platoon_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1519,
"contribution": 0.08553,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_apps_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter an established starter (10+ starts)",
"share": 0.1154,
"contribution": 0.06497,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-10T22:00:30Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4800889569246815,
"p_shipped": 0.4822434542416778,
"model_mu": 8.566977666683718,
"market_p": 0.47814910025706947,
"divergence": 0.0019398566676120388,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-10T22:00:30Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3.1 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.3982,
"contribution": -0.21376,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_ra30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Game-time temperature 83\u00b0F",
"share": 0.1916,
"contribution": 0.10288,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"park_f5_asof",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1593,
"contribution": 0.08553,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_apps_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team striking out more than league average, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1299,
"contribution": -0.06972,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_k30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_bb30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter an established starter (10+ starts)",
"share": 0.121,
"contribution": 0.06497,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
]
}
]
}
]