Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4007126493601088,
"p_shipped": 0.4529956173845493,
"model_mu": 3.65533116326999,
"market_p": 0.48062015503875977,
"divergence": -0.07990750567865096,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.2849,
"contribution": -0.16737,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_elo",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter strikes out 29.9% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.2625,
"contribution": -0.15423,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_tto_decay"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.2192,
"contribution": -0.12879,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_rel_miss",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Game-time temperature 79\u00b0F",
"share": 0.1595,
"contribution": 0.09372,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"temp_out",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
"share": 0.0537,
"contribution": -0.03154,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_framing_miss",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0202,
"contribution": 0.01189,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_k30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-08T22:04:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4214135816594553,
"p_shipped": 0.5139079838772421,
"model_mu": 4.095096096909322,
"market_p": 0.5295629820051414,
"divergence": -0.1081494003456861,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-08T22:04:36Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.265,
"contribution": -0.16737,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_elo",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter strikes out 29.9% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.2442,
"contribution": -0.15423,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_tto_decay"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
"share": 0.1812,
"contribution": -0.1144,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_backup_catcher",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Game-time temperature 78\u00b0F",
"share": 0.1586,
"contribution": 0.10013,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"temp_out",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.151,
"contribution": -0.09538,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4118197009174774,
"p_shipped": 0.4940773504111431,
"model_mu": 7.148954760958494,
"market_p": 0.4974226804123712,
"divergence": -0.08560297949489382,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "push",
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.3126,
"contribution": -0.23622,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_ra30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter strikes out 29.9% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.2112,
"contribution": -0.15962,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans over",
"share": 0.1744,
"contribution": 0.13176,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_tz2",
"h_miles7d_k",
"a_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team striking out more than league average, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1586,
"contribution": -0.11985,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_k30",
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_bb30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.0786,
"contribution": -0.05936,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_zone_miss",
"ump_gate_miss",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.0647,
"contribution": 0.04887,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"park_f5_asof",
"temp_out",
"alt_kft"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-08T22:04:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4209188221309135,
"p_shipped": 0.49364183911601706,
"model_mu": 7.640553644641358,
"market_p": 0.5089974293059126,
"divergence": -0.08807860717499916,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 7.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-08T22:04:36Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.3498,
"contribution": -0.23622,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_ra30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter strikes out 29.9% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.2364,
"contribution": -0.15962,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans over",
"share": 0.1951,
"contribution": 0.13176,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_tz2",
"h_miles7d_k",
"a_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team striking out more than league average, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1417,
"contribution": -0.09571,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_k30",
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_bb30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.0769,
"contribution": 0.05195,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"park_f5_asof",
"temp_out",
"alt_kft"
]
}
]
}
]