Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-05T13:15:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4482401843335888,
"p_shipped": 0.48495627263455676,
"model_mu": 3.8635650651015516,
"market_p": 0.4883720930232558,
"divergence": -0.040131908689666984,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T13:15:59Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter holds up the third time through the order",
"share": 0.3229,
"contribution": -0.14596,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_tto_decay",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_starts_c10"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.2101,
"contribution": 0.09496,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing in, ~8 mph net",
"share": 0.2079,
"contribution": -0.09397,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"wind_out_comp",
"day_game",
"roof_open"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.1502,
"contribution": -0.06787,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.089,
"contribution": 0.04024,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0199,
"contribution": -0.00901,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_elo",
"h_ra30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-05T19:00:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4404873513664294,
"p_shipped": 0.46047390872179095,
"model_mu": 4.512815188173204,
"market_p": 0.46649484536082475,
"divergence": -0.026007493994395336,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T19:00:14Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter holds up the third time through the order",
"share": 0.3296,
"contribution": -0.14596,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_tto_decay",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_starts_c10"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing in, ~9 mph net",
"share": 0.2373,
"contribution": -0.1051,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"wind_out_comp",
"day_game",
"roof_open"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.1533,
"contribution": -0.06787,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
"share": 0.1375,
"contribution": 0.0609,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_backup_catcher"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.122,
"contribution": 0.05403,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0203,
"contribution": -0.00901,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_elo",
"h_ra30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-05T13:15:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5309026625192,
"p_shipped": 0.49313101523099306,
"model_mu": 7.48473989967503,
"market_p": 0.4961439588688946,
"divergence": 0.03475870365030542,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T13:15:59Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.2636,
"contribution": 0.09164,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"wind_out_comp",
"park_f5_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
"share": 0.1941,
"contribution": 0.06746,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_b2b",
"h_bp_b2b"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "How often this umpire's calls match the strike zone",
"share": 0.1881,
"contribution": -0.0654,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_acc_asof",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_width_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.151,
"contribution": 0.05248,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_opener",
"a_sp_starts_c10",
"a_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1225,
"contribution": 0.04257,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"a_wp_pb30",
"a_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0807,
"contribution": -0.02805,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_platoon_miss"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-05T19:00:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5261701292076515,
"p_shipped": 0.486533490513004,
"model_mu": 8.40217422868538,
"market_p": 0.4974226804123712,
"divergence": 0.028747448795280295,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T19:00:14Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.2827,
"contribution": 0.0837,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"wind_out_comp",
"park_f5_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
"share": 0.2278,
"contribution": 0.06746,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_b2b",
"h_bp_b2b"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "How often this umpire's calls match the strike zone",
"share": 0.2209,
"contribution": -0.0654,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_acc_asof",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_width_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1772,
"contribution": 0.05248,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_opener",
"a_sp_starts_c10",
"a_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0914,
"contribution": -0.02706,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_tz2"
]
}
]
}
]